Friday, June 18, 2010

US Market

For the record.

IBD signaled a market correction around the start of May.

There was the intraday flash crash on May 6th.

A Follow-thru-day on Wed 2nd June suffered a distribution day on the 4th. A distribution day within the first few days of the FTD nearly always marks the end of the trend. The FTD went nowhere.
Another FTD on 4th Tues 15th. Market has been flat since then for the past 4 days, with no distribution. Not very bullish either. IBD notes that "for the 10 best follow-through days since 2000, there are none that look identical to the action of the past three sessions." Right now, I think this is one has a 50/50 chance.

[Update 30th Jun 10]

Markets fell last night on heavy volume.


The downtrend continues.

[Update 11th Jul 10]
Another FTD was signaled on Wed 7th Jul. But vol was only up 1% on that day. Market has kept going up in the crucial few following days - 5% last week - but on low vol. IBD notes: "A strong uptrend may create regrets among investors who stay on the sidelines for the first few days after a follow-through. A false signal could create quick losses for anyone who buys stocks. But this fledgling uptrend has done neither."

Bespoke notes:
Mixed signals. Since I've no opinion on market direction, won't do anything.

If stocks on the SGX pull back to support levels, I can consider dipping my toes in. The STI, and many SGX stocks, have been trendless rather than downtrending.

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