Sold Everything

Yesterday, 25th Jan 2010. Sold:

• 3 lots SIA Eng @ $3.53
• 14 lots Amara @ 53c
• 1 lot SIA @ $14.00
• 10 lots Mermaid @ 80.5c
• 23 lots Hong Fok @ 71.5c
• Hiap Seng Engineering 15 lots @ 64.5c
• GuocoLeisure 14 lots @ 71c
• Yangzijiang 7 lots @ $1.13
• Straits Asia 3 lots @ 2.32
• NOL 6 lots @ $1.77
• Rotary 10 lots @ 1.04
• KepLand 3 lots @ 3.43

Sold because the market looks to be correcting. Yesterday I put it at an 80% chance. Last nights limp rebound, after 3 consecutive down days on the US mkt, seems to confirm this (vol down 28% on NYSE, 24% on Nasdaq):

Short term, I missed the rebound.... too bad.

From Nov 09 to Now, lost 3K. Main mistake was getting to carried away with the bull market and chasing stocks without a tight stop loss.

Sold Wheelock, Wing Tai

Today, 22 Jan 2010. Sold:

• 5 lots Wing Tai @ 2.03
• 5 lots Wheelock @ 2.06

Sold because I want to cut my exposure to potential losses as these stocks are trading quite far from support.

Was careless to enter into these trades.

Sold Capitamall Asia

Sold 4 lots today @ $2.34

Sold Olam

Olam dropped yesterday on high vol, breaking down through triangle. And dropped again today on high vol, making a LL.

Sold 4 lots @ $2.51 on 22 Jan 2010.

Noble also dropped on higher vol, are commodity stocks starting a downtrend?

"SGX Trading Volume Surge Seen as Bullish"

In big letters on the front page of today's BT.

I don't take this as a sell signal, wait for it to appear in the new paper or the ST.

Start looking out for signs of euphoria...

SGX market

US mkt dropped on high vol Friday (possibly due to options expiration), following a similar high vol drop on Tues. Maybe going back to a pattern of higher highs on low vol. Having risen since Mar, it is overdue for a correction. This gives a cautious undertone.

But in Singapore, there are no signs of a correction yet:

1) Leading stocks for this rally show no problems, their pullbacks are all on low vol. The leading stocks are the ones which broke out earliest on high vol, or which ignored the Sept-Nov consolidation period and have been in an uptrend since March. Some are:

• High end property developers (Wheelock, Wing Tai, SC global, KepLand).
• SIA Eng, mabye SIA.
• Noble, Straits Asia
• Suntec REIT, Frasers Centerpoint trust

2) Friday's top 20 vol shows only 6 out of 20 stocks below 20c. Still seems ok, we do not see too many pennies around the sub 5c level (eg: Jade).

3) Stocks are suddenly shooting up on massive volume in a single day.

There is no time to look at support and resistance on charts, wait for pullbacks and buy. Have to buy before the stock moves. Just throw money at the bull and hope something sticks.

Amazing how fast everything has changed.

Bought Olam

13th Jan 10. Bought 4 lots Olam @ 2.71 on broker's recommendation.

It appears to be in a large triangle consolidation.

Bought wheelock, wing tai

On 11th Jan 10, bought:

• 5 lots Wing Tai @ $1.97
• 5 lots Wheelock @ 2.13

No real analysis, still trying to get into the bull market. High-end private property seems to be one of the leading sectors (SC Global, Wheelock, Wing Tai, KepLand).

Bought SIA

1 lots @ 14.54 on 11th Jan 10.

This stock broke out of a brief consolidation in mid Dec. Bought it on low vol retracement.

I may have jumped the gun, as I did not wait for it to successfully test the support level and confirm the uptrend.

Bought Hiap Seng

15 lots @ 65.5c on 7th Jan 10, on retracement as it broke out of triangle

The price/vol action so far looks healthy - retracement on lower vol. But need to see if it can clear 70.5c.

Bought guocoleisure

Bought 14 lots at 71c on 7th Jan 2010.


Again, no real plan. It broke out of a triangle a while ago.

Bought mermaid

On 6th Jan 2010, bought 10 lots at 91c.

This one broke out of a triangle a long time ago.

No real analysis when I bought, just throwing money at a bull market.

Bought more Hong fok

Bought 10 lots @ 71c on 6th Jan 2010.

No plan, just trying to average up, bull market got a little crazy.

Sold Bukit Sembawang

Bought 1 lot at $5.12 on 7th Jan 2010, trying to average up.

After that, it fell for several days on high vol.

Most other stocks are retracing healthily on light volume. This is the only one I've seen with heavy distribution. Especially so amongst property stocks. Even thouh it looks oversold, the chart is too unhealthy to hold.

I sold 3 lots on 14th Jan @$4.96, made a small loss of abt $200.

SGX market action (Tues 5th Jan 10)

Still strong, but a little more mixed than yesterday:

- A few stocks flew 5-10% on high vol (KepLand, SIA Eng).
- Many others faltered the second half of the day (Amara), so we get a few black candles. On high vol too, but usually slightly lower then yesterday's breakout.
- 162 stocks above 20c making new highs, comparable to the peaks of the March and Oct bull mkts. Approaching short-term overbought levels.
- 8/20 stocks in the top vol list below 20c. Still OK.

Swissco

Another consolidation/triangle breakout. Vol on breakout was just barely 2X 5 day MA.

But note that its near resistance (83c) right now.

SGX breadth: rally continues

Rally continues. The market feels crazy now, the sensible thing to do is to wait for pullback. Today, every stock on my watch list (vested or not) jumped on high vol.

But based on the market depth (stocks above 20c making 1 months highs) the rally could go further, if compared to the last two rallies in Apr-May and Jul-Aug:

7 of the top 20 vol stocks are below 20c. 2 below 10c. My guess is that we are still in the middle of the rally.

If everyone else is waiting for the pullback, it won't occur.

I am only 42% invested. What should I do?

Bought Amara

Bought 14 lots at 59c, at today's high. Another stock that has broken out of triangle consolidation.

Cut loss at 51c, possibly at 53.5c.

Every stock I am watching (vested or not) went up on high vol today. Market is going up so fast it is difficult to make descisions

Bought CapitalMallAsia

28th Dec 09, bought 4 lots @ $2.54. Purely on broker's recommendation. Reason is that it looks oversold.

Cut loss at $2.51.

No chart, this counter does not appear on any of my software.