Sunday, November 1, 2009

US market: finally in downtrend

S&P500 now down 5% from its high, and showing clear patterns of distribution.

Should have sold after the weak vol rebound on Thurs, but too busy/tired at work. Sell tomorrow, even though SGX will be hammered. Holding will just compound the mistake.

I still think this is a correction in a liquitidy-driven uptrend, which may end next year. Keep reminding myself: I do not know for sure.. do not know how far the market will fall until after it happens.

From memory (no records) most corrections last for 2 weeks. Correction is now one week old and 5% down. So I should be still look for opportunities - monitor stocks showing strength and see.

Just a note that IBD's distribiution day count method was a little unreliable in the 2 months leading to this downturn. There were many 'market under pressure' calls amd one false 'market under correction' in Mid Aug - which was corrected a day later'. Probably does not work in a non-trending market, wait at least a few days for confirmation (weak volume rebound) before rushing to sell.

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