Keppl vs SCI: price/vol action

Buying SCI was a mistake.

Two things:

• Price/vol action is wrong. Keppel is showing up days on higher vol and down days on lower vol. SCI shows the opposite.
• At the breakout (blue stars), SCI's volume does not clearly exceed the previous volume spike (end August). Keppel's breakout volume does exceed any previous spike.

Sold 3 lots SCI @ $3.34, Tues 29-Sept-09.

US market: dipping again

US markets dipped in the past few days, scoring distribution days:

From IBD:

• Since this uptrend began in March, the Nasdaq's declines haven't exceeded 8%.
• The key now will be to watch for additional distribution days and any sign of change in the recent pattern of 4% to 8% dips.

Longer term, I have no conviction in this rally, but for now, I believe this to still be a bull market, until proven otherwise. Driven by liquidity, and the market's need to further humiliate the bears. One caveat: sometimes no catalyst is needed for a bear market to start.

Looking for ways to go long... to buy without risking too much. I am buying counters that are oversold or close to support levels. That way, if the market turns bearish, or into a trading market, its easier to take the loss. If the market goes up.. the upside will take care of itself.

No FA - nothing cheap enough for long term investment.

To see what Buffet owns

Goto http://www.sec.gov/ --> search --> 'EDGAR full text search' which leads to their MainAccess page
Click on Advanced Search page.
Enter in:

• Form type: "13F-HR"
• Central Index Key (CIK): 1067983
• Current end date, and start date sometime in the past.

The results are given in tables. Column 5 (Shares or Principal Amount) is the important one. eg:

Column 1	Column 5
------------------	--------------------
Johnson & Johnson	Shares or Principal Name of Issuerer Amount $
	13,509,591
	325,300
	9,087,200
	792,000
	575,000
	3,897,300

Add up all the numbers in this column for the total number of shares owned by Berkshire. Compare it with the numbers from different quarters to see if they are buying or selling.

13F forms are published within 45 days after the quarter end.

Or else, just google for 'berkshire hathaway 13F' or 'buffet holdings' to see if someone else has already done the work.

Bought Allgreen, Keppel

Fri 11 Sept:
- Bought 7 lots Allgreen @ 1.26

Tues 15 Sept:
- Bought 1 lot KepCorp @ 8.09

Bought Midas, SGX

Thurs 10 Sept 09, bought:
- 10 loys Midas @ 84c
- 1 lot SGX @ 8.81

Bought Olam, Epure

Wed 9th Sept 09, bought:
- 10 lots Epure @ 63.5c
- 4 lots OLAM @2.38

Charts later.

Bought China Fish, SCI, Straits Asia

Mon 7th Sept 09, bought:
- 3 lots Sembcorp Industrial @ $3.32
- 5 lots Straits Asia @ $2.06
- 6 lots China Fish @ $1.29

Other charts

SCI:

SC Global:

CapitaRetail China:

Using MACD-H to find extreme shakeout

Refining the 4-red-1-green rule to find situations where an uptrending stock has been sold off enough to shakeout the weaker holders.

1) Bull market. Stock in uptrend.

2) Recent sharp fall in price, usually several black candles - to shakeout the weaker players.

3) MACD-H is at its lowest point since the start of the rally/uptrend, signalling the severity of the shakeout.

4) When it turns green, hopefully the shakeout is over and stock can shoot up now that the weaker holders are gone.

Past examples:

CDL Hospitality (start Aug):

SATS (start Aug):

The current selloff is caused by SIA shareholders selling - should I play it now? Such abnormal selling may be distorting the chart.

CAO:

Current Examples:

See Hup Seng:

Straits Asia: