Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Wheelock End 08 update

Released 4Q08 results on 20th Feb. They recognized a headline grabbing 200m loss on their listed investments in HPL and SC Global, but I'm valuing these at zero because I can't be bothered to go thru another two companies' financial statements.


After collecting for The Cosmopolitan and The Sea View, they have abt 380m (31.5c/share) nett cash (after deducting debt and tax liabilities). They have a tiny 7% in receivables (ie: risk free) for both these projects, due Jan 09. So lets say a total of 33c/share nett cash.

Projects and Landbank:

End Dec 08.

Property Description
and price estimate
% sold and completed (based on URA's payment scheme, not Wheelock's revenue recognition)
% Payment collectedPayments owed
Ardmore II
118 4 bdrm units. Priced 4.2m-5.5m. So revenue conservatively is 500m.
Assume 200m development costs. Gives 300m.

100% sold.

"Progress billings for Ardmore II range from 40% to 45% and we expect to achieve 60% by the end of 2009."

Assume all 45% collected as part of the cash.
Awaiting 55%. Translates to 180-210m or 13.5c per share.
(All the properties below are same as before)

Scotts Square
388 1,2 and 3 bdrm units.

ASP $3,994 psf (3Q08 results, Sect 10).

From floor plan(Apartments-->floor plan): scotts wing has at least 150,000 sq ft, orchard wing 72,000 sq ft, total 222,000 sq ft. So 620m for the 70% sold. Deduct development costs of 168m. So 452m for the 70% sold.

70% sold.

"Foundation works for the project are expected to complete in early 2009 and the next staged progress payment of 10% has commenced in the 1st quarter of 2009."

Expected TOP 2011.
0nly 20% collected
80% unrecognised, so not in receivables.
Gives 361m (or 30c per share).

At least 30% of the development's units sold to Singaporeans. So up to 40% may be sold to foreigners.
Orchard View
30 4-bdrm units.

No idea what it can sell for.
Expected 2009.
To be launched for sale upon completion, so no URA payment schedule.
Ardmore IIIWait till next property cycle.

Investment Properties:

Half their balance sheet is made of 790m for Wheelock place. No idea how this is justified, for an 80yr leased property that generated 37m revenue in 2008. As an very rough guess, I would cut its value to 300m (25c/share) instead.

In results they said:
"A copy of the revaluation report is available for inspection at the Company’s registered office, 501 Orchard Road, #11-01 Wheelock Place, Singapore 238880, during normal business hours for 3 months from 20 February 2009."

Wonder if anyone will ever take them up on their offer?

They will also hold a few retail outlets in Scotts Square.

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