Monday, December 1, 2008

Praying its only a bear market rally

Citibank report on the severity of the bear market and recession. Yeah, and they of all people should know:
  • the current US consumer-led recession is much worse than the 2001 tech bust
  • The 2001 bust lead to a 91 week bear market in Singapore
  • Current bear market only in 54th week
  • "Bear markets typically do not hit the trough or end until the economy is past the worst phase of the recession. In the 1985/86 recession, the bear market ended at the tail end of the recession. In the 1997/98 Asian crisis and 2001/02 tech recessions, the bear market ended in the middle of the recession, during the quarter where contraction was most severe."
Chart showing the Dow's 5 straight previous days of recovery on declining volume.


In case its not obvious, I'm really hoping for another leg down. Most of my money is on the sidelines.

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