Bear Markets

Random Roger's insights into bear markets. This guy is a stockbroker who has to manage clients and worry about things like managed funds, sector/country allocation, blah, blah, blah... BUT he still has some very simple criteria for recognizing a bear market and minimizing its damage.

• The typical bear market lasts 9-18 months and declines 30% - so we're not expecting this one to be over yet (currently 6-7 months, 20% down and counting...)
• He uses 2 simple criteria: the 200 MA and the yield curve.
• And while in a bear market, ignore valuations and 'oversold' readings. Rely on your indicators.
  

His style is different from mine. He is more of a long term investor, remains invested most of the time while 'tweaking' his portfolio. I sometimes trade and sometimes invest, depending on what the market has to offer, but a bear market, I just get the hell out! I'm waiting until it falls low enough to start nibbling again... the facts above tell me that its probably not time yet.

Bear photo from http://www.fg-a.com.