I am holding a lot of cash, and doing short term trades:
Everything depends on oil (or product) prices, which depends on whatever Trump does next. I have no advantage in a flip-flop market, I make big money from Trends. But not now. No need for me to keep playing a losing game.
My base case is that both sides keep fighting, until one is worn down. The US does not have any good options left, and the IRGC can be strangled by blockades. The war could continue for 2 weeks or 2 months. If it goes on, and real destruction starts to be priced in, Dubai stocks may be worth a look. Not buying oil because of the flip-flop risk.
Notes:
- Sold some interest rate sensitive stocks and healthcare as they rose. Taking profits quickly (several days to 2 weeks) in an uncertain market leave me less exposed when the trend changes.
- Bought Copper ETF and some other stocks.
- Sold bonds at a small loss, bond yields are higher. But the above interest rate sensetive stocks are still working, I don't know why,
- Shorted high beta tech.
- Crypto *might* be making a comeback.
- Avoided the tech crash on Thurs.
- Thurs was one of my best days from paper gains on my Gas Pipelines, as gas breaks out.
Both my longs and my shorts are working. Small trades. Don't expect any trend to last.
No comments:
Post a Comment