Two scenarios for the medium term:
- Rising real GDP growth from Sept onwards, combined with stimulus for the mid-terms propels the market higher. I want to be 100% long a rising market. Buy the dips now, don't sell. Being a pig made me a lot of money in 2024 and 2025.
- Rising crude or product prices derail read growth and hit market confidence. We go back to our on-again off-again war. Market chops, slightly downwards. In this sort of market I want to cut exposure, both long and short. No FOMO, have a comfortable cash cushion, let the world pass me by. Only take trades heavily in my favour. Swing trades, take some profit after a few days. Any profit is good. Float like a butterfly.
I don't know which scenario happens. Maybe some messy combination of both.
I have cut back on my trades and shorts, both cutting losses and taking profit. Added a LATAM bank:
Lets see how it goes.
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