Thursday, May 28, 2015

Sold Dragon Oil (LSE:DGO)

Sold all my 1700 shares at 687.50p on 26th May.

The majority shareholder ENOC indicated in March that they would make an offer, finally mentioning a 735p price on the 21st of May.  Not as much as I'd hoped, and the market seems doubtful the bid will go through.

ENOC is a refiner who badly needs E&P capacity to sell oil domestically.  A previous opportunistic bid in 2009 was defeated by minority shareholders.  Don't know what will happen now - the takeover may fall through, or they may increase the price.

This company is not a long term investment, despite the good numbers.  "Oil" and "Turkmenistan" make it too risky to build a meaningful stake.  Don't want to be left holding it if the takeover falls through.  Better to sell now for a quick 20% gain.

Profit is SGD 4437.43, including dividends.  Right now, the results, and the process - being able to wait for a commodity to become undervalued, find ways to invest in low cost producers while managing risk, and waiting for the payoff - mean more than the money does.  Prove you can make a plan and follow it.

Incidentally, Turkmenistan's president just unveiled  a 65ft high, 24k-gold, overcompensating statue of himself riding a horse.

Monday, April 20, 2015

Bought Rolls Royce (RYCEY)

The idea for buying this is clearly explained by Bronte Capital here and here.    It depends on the success for the A350, the B787 Dreamliner (Rolls has about a 30% engine share) and the upcoming A330neo (expected end 2017).  The main competitor for the A350 is the B777X, expected in 2019.

Based on their order numbers for the Dreamliner (~300 planes), A350 (~800 planes) and the a330neo (~140 planes), with Airbus’ expected A350 production rate, I’m guessing a large ramp-up in 2017-2019 (190 planes in 2017, 240 in 2018 and 2019).  The company provided slightly more optimistic charts:



(Source - June 2014 presentation - p21&22)

Roll’s civilian aerospace 2014 income is about 50% recurring (services) and 50% project based (OEM).  The industry is a simple duopoly.  The only risk I can see is something unexpected happening (e.g.: SARS, 911, financial crisis), or the end of a typical expansion cycle where everyone realises too late that the’ve all added excess capacity.  This would affect Roll’s OEM revenue as orders are cancelled, and their service revenue (power-by-the-hour) shinks as revenue/profits are recognised based on expected flight hours.

Underlying PBT guided for 2015 was 1.4-1.55bn pounds, giving at the lower bound, an EPS (before tax) of 73.9p, or EPS (after tax) 56.2p.  At 900p, thats a PE of 16.


The idea of RR selling its under performing assets (1), (2) is unlikely due to the UK government’s golden share.

For me, the potential reward os worth the risk, after buying I'll still be 78% in cash.  Hard to find anything to buy.


Bought 304 RYCEY ADRs at USD 73.0955.  Total cost was USD 22,229.98.

Paperwork stuff:
  • One ADR (RYCEY) equals 5 LSE shares.
  • Later on, check my dividends to make sure the are not taxed: UK shares should not be, neither should their ADRs. Check the fees BNY Mellon charges (should be 1-3c/share) for the dividend payments.
  • Held in my Schwabb account.  Should be a long term holding.  Counterparty risk through Schwab and BNY Mellon.  No way to avoid this for UK shares unless opening a CREST acct.

Sunday, March 15, 2015

Sold IEO, Bought Genel

Sold 300 IEO shares on Thursday night at $70.85.  Total loss was USD 1042.34.  Only bought them to have some exposure to oil when I couldn't find any stocks to buy.

Bought 1800 shares of Genel at 515p on Friday afternoon (London - Friday morning).  Total cost was SGD 19,393.51.  They dropped 3% in that session.  Shit!  If only I'd waited a little longer.  At 515p, I value them at 12x earnings (@ $70 Brent), excluding failed-exploration costs.

Friday's session was terrible for oil: WT is retesting its lows at $44, Brent closed at $54.64, may soon retest lows around $50.

Still think oil will recover by the end of the year as marginal shale producers go belly-up and cut production.  Providing there is no recession.  Am 40% invested and looking for more companies to buy. US shale producers are still expensive - they did not drop much on Friday.

Thursday, March 5, 2015

Genel 2014 results and Valuation

Genel Energy released their full 2014 results today, and the stock price has shot up 10%.

Guidance for 2015 is for $350-400m revenue (at $50 Brent), and a 38% increase in production volumes.  Based on that, I estimate 2015 profits to be 26c (or 17p) profit per share, using generous assumptions:

This would give a high PE - fair enough in a cyclical industry.    What if we adjust for a long term price of Brent $70?

  • From their 14th May 2014 Investor presentation, and after going through the flowchart (p38)  Genel's revenue rises/falls by around 6% for every 10% rise/fall in the oil price.
  • So an 40% oil price increase to $70 Brent would give a 24% increase in revenue, to $496m.  Profit would be 60c or 40p.  At a share price of 600p, thats a PE of 15.  Not cheap.  And with a few unrealistic assumptions.
What am I missing?

Monday, March 2, 2015

Bought Dragon Oil (LSE:DGO)

2nd Mar 2015 - Bought 1700 shares at 541p.  Total cost: SGD 19.833.97

Held in my DBS Vickers acct.

Brent was around $61 when I bought.

Saturday, February 28, 2015

Dragon Oil (LSE:DGO)

Dragon Oil is the largest oil producer in Turkmenistan. All their commercial production is from their Cheleken Contract Area in the Caspian Sea, consisting of the Zhdanov and Lam fields.  The contract lasts until 2025, with rights to negotiate a ten year extension.


In December 2014, oil was found in Iraq; expected to take 2 or 3 years to determine if commercially viable.

They are also performing exploration in Algeria and Egypt.

Revenue (Production Service Agreement)


Their Cheleken PSA entitles Dragon to 50% of the oil found over the life of the contract.  In the short term, that percentage varies depending on opex and oil prices.  Entitlement in 2013 was 44%, 2014 was 56%, and 2015 is expected to be 65%.  Dragon also has to pay some taxes on profit as part of the PSA.

I could not find any other details or a copy of the PSA.

The PSA seems to be frequently amended.  In December 2014, after the oil price fell steeply, taxes were reduced from 25% to 20%, to be replaced by an additional flat $10m to be spent on social and training projects.

Reserves

The company only gives 2P reserves (50% confidence level of recovery).  Dragon Oil concentrates more on production than exploration - Over they long term reserves are flat:


But they have been decreasing in the two years: 93% replacement in 2013, and 60% replacement in 2014.  Their reserves may be fluctuating based o oil prices (?)

Costs and Breakeven

Look at their break-even costs per barrel.  Use all costs on the income statement, except for taxes (not required if making a loss):



In 2009, management stated (p11) they has break-even costs of between $25-30/bbl.  Cash costs consist of in-country operating costs of $4-5/bbl, G&A costs of $2-3/bbl, and marketing/transport at $2/bbl.  Add depreciation of $16-17/bbl.  The resulting $25-30/bbl cost is close to my numbers.

They sell at a discount to Brent, on an FOB basis.  In previous years the discount was typically 14-18% of the price.   In 2015, the discount negotiated is a flat $14/bbl.  So the final 'all-in' break even price, conservatively, is $44 Brent.

Balance sheet

At end 2014, net cash is use 1.9bn, or USD 3.93 per share (roughly 255p).

Management stated they hope to make acquisitions in 2015.  No special dividend is planned.

Valuation

Assuming Brent $70 with some reasonable assumptions, I get a PE of 12:


Due to majority ownership by ENOC, this firm cannot be a takeover target.

Trailing dividend yield is 36c, or 23p, or about 4% at a share price of 550p.

Risk

Turkmenistan is a dictatorship and one of the worlds most repressive countries, with leaders that have built cults of personality around themselves.  Do you really want to invest money in a country that erected gold plated statues to Glorious Dear Leader?


Summary

Excellent numbers from a company generating free cash-flow from a low cost resource base.  Good valuation.  Limit any investment to 2% due to the geopolitical risk.

Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Bought IEO

Bought 300 shares of IEO, at $74.19 each this morning.  Total cost USD 22,311.

WTI was ~ $53 when I bought.  I guess its long term sustainable price to be $70 - seems to be the consensus view too.

Its 1/3rd of my intended position. In case this week's breakout was real.  I'm always uneasy buying on breakout, because it comes from fear.  Fear of missing out.  My old broker used to say "Never chase".

If this breakout is fake, and oil goes down to the forties again, then I hope to accumulate at better values.  If not, today's trade may give me a consolation prize.