Sunday, March 15, 2015

Sold IEO, Bought Genel

Sold 300 IEO shares on Thursday night at $70.85.  Total loss was USD 1042.34.  Only bought them to have some exposure to oil when I couldn't find any stocks to buy.

Bought 1800 shares of Genel at 515p on Friday afternoon (London - Friday morning).  Total cost was SGD 19,393.51.  They dropped 3% in that session.  Shit!  If only I'd waited a little longer.  At 515p, I value them at 12x earnings (@ $70 Brent), excluding failed-exploration costs.

Friday's session was terrible for oil: WT is retesting its lows at $44, Brent closed at $54.64, may soon retest lows around $50.

Still think oil will recover by the end of the year as marginal shale producers go belly-up and cut production.  Providing there is no recession.  Am 40% invested and looking for more companies to buy. US shale producers are still expensive - they did not drop much on Friday.

Thursday, March 5, 2015

Genel 2014 results and Valuation

Genel Energy released their full 2014 results today, and the stock price has shot up 10%.

Guidance for 2015 is for $350-400m revenue (at $50 Brent), and a 38% increase in production volumes.  Based on that, I estimate 2015 profits to be 26c (or 17p) profit per share, using generous assumptions:

This would give a high PE - fair enough in a cyclical industry.    What if we adjust for a long term price of Brent $70?

  • From their 14th May 2014 Investor presentation, and after going through the flowchart (p38)  Genel's revenue rises/falls by around 6% for every 10% rise/fall in the oil price.
  • So an 40% oil price increase to $70 Brent would give a 24% increase in revenue, to $496m.  Profit would be 60c or 40p.  At a share price of 600p, thats a PE of 15.  Not cheap.  And with a few unrealistic assumptions.
What am I missing?

Monday, March 2, 2015

Bought Dragon Oil (LSE:DGO)

2nd Mar 2015 - Bought 1700 shares at 541p.  Total cost: SGD 19.833.97

Held in my DBS Vickers acct.

Brent was around $61 when I bought.

Saturday, February 28, 2015

Dragon Oil (LSE:DGO)

Dragon Oil is the largest oil producer in Turkmenistan. All their commercial production is from their Cheleken Contract Area in the Caspian Sea, consisting of the Zhdanov and Lam fields.  The contract lasts until 2025, with rights to negotiate a ten year extension.


In December 2014, oil was found in Iraq; expected to take 2 or 3 years to determine if commercially viable.

They are also performing exploration in Algeria and Egypt.

Revenue (Production Service Agreement)


Their Cheleken PSA entitles Dragon to 50% of the oil found over the life of the contract.  In the short term, that percentage varies depending on opex and oil prices.  Entitlement in 2013 was 44%, 2014 was 56%, and 2015 is expected to be 65%.  Dragon also has to pay some taxes on profit as part of the PSA.

I could not find any other details or a copy of the PSA.

The PSA seems to be frequently amended.  In December 2014, after the oil price fell steeply, taxes were reduced from 25% to 20%, to be replaced by an additional flat $10m to be spent on social and training projects.

Reserves

The company only gives 2P reserves (50% confidence level of recovery).  Dragon Oil concentrates more on production than exploration - Over they long term reserves are flat:


But they have been decreasing in the two years: 93% replacement in 2013, and 60% replacement in 2014.  Their reserves may be fluctuating based o oil prices (?)

Costs and Breakeven

Look at their break-even costs per barrel.  Use all costs on the income statement, except for taxes (not required if making a loss):



In 2009, management stated (p11) they has break-even costs of between $25-30/bbl.  Cash costs consist of in-country operating costs of $4-5/bbl, G&A costs of $2-3/bbl, and marketing/transport at $2/bbl.  Add depreciation of $16-17/bbl.  The resulting $25-30/bbl cost is close to my numbers.

They sell at a discount to Brent, on an FOB basis.  In previous years the discount was typically 14-18% of the price.   In 2015, the discount negotiated is a flat $14/bbl.  So the final 'all-in' break even price, conservatively, is $44 Brent.

Balance sheet

At end 2014, net cash is use 1.9bn, or USD 3.93 per share (roughly 255p).

Management stated they hope to make acquisitions in 2015.  No special dividend is planned.

Valuation

Assuming Brent $70 with some reasonable assumptions, I get a PE of 12:


Due to majority ownership by ENOC, this firm cannot be a takeover target.

Trailing dividend yield is 36c, or 23p, or about 4% at a share price of 550p.

Risk

Turkmenistan is a dictatorship and one of the worlds most repressive countries, with leaders that have built cults of personality around themselves.  Do you really want to invest money in a country that erected gold plated statues to Glorious Dear Leader?


Summary

Excellent numbers from a company generating free cash-flow from a low cost resource base.  Good valuation.  Limit any investment to 2% due to the geopolitical risk.

Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Bought IEO

Bought 300 shares of IEO, at $74.19 each this morning.  Total cost USD 22,311.

WTI was ~ $53 when I bought.  I guess its long term sustainable price to be $70 - seems to be the consensus view too.

Its 1/3rd of my intended position. In case this week's breakout was real.  I'm always uneasy buying on breakout, because it comes from fear.  Fear of missing out.  My old broker used to say "Never chase".

If this breakout is fake, and oil goes down to the forties again, then I hope to accumulate at better values.  If not, today's trade may give me a consolation prize.

Sunday, February 1, 2015

Oil ETFs

I believe oil is priced below its sustainable price.  Beyond buying a few barrels to store in my flat, how can I invest in it?  All the individual companies I've looked at are not at low enough valuations for me catch a falling knife.  What about ETFs?

Oil commodity tracker ETFs, such as USO, are synthetic, since its hard to physically store  oil.  They suffer from large tracking error when the market is in contago, as they have to regularly roll over their (cheaper) expiring near term futures into longer term (expensive) ones:

(Source - bidnessetc.com - Seeking Exposure to Oil and Gas prices?  Here is what you should not do.)

ETF tracking Oil companies are better.  But most common ones, XLE or VDE, are heavily weighted towards large caps (with 22% ExxonMobil 22%, and 12% Chevron).  Looking at Jim Chanos' recent short position in XOM, I'm hesitant to bet against him.

XOP, tracking the "SPDR S&P 500 Oil and Gas exploration & production index" may be a better choice to track the WTI.   It is split by equal weightings into 80 companies, each less than 2%.  Holdings are 100% US based, around 77% are E&P.  They are all small E&P companies such as Laredo Petroleum or Parsely.  The top ten holdings make up 15%.  The risk here is that a large number of these companies go belly up -  based on 1-2m bbl/d oversupply on the global markets, US shale production needs to drop by 10-20%.

IEO, the "iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF" is another option, which holds mostly mid-sized companies such as EOG or Andarko, with 73% E&P, also 100% US based.  The top ten holdings make up 60%.  IEO behaves as a lower beta version of XOP - they both track WTI, but IEO rises and falls less.

I'm thinking of taking a third of my planned position by buying IEO at the WTI support of $44 - too bad I missed Friday night (morning in US). Later buy another third if WTI drops below $40 - hopefully by then, valuations are down enough for me to buy individual stocks.  And then I may swap my initial IEO position into a higher risk XOP one.

Sunday, January 18, 2015

The Oil Majors

Since I'm looking for a way to place bets on a rising oil price sometime in the future, take a look at the large Integrated Oil Companies.

There have been many articles over the past few years saying that the IOCs are losing out to the National Oil Companies, as cheaply accessible oil is getting harder to find.  To check this, look at these these numbers over the past 10+ years:
  • Volume of oil produced.  Don't look at revenue, which depends on a fluctuating oil prices.  And don't use BOE, which mixes oil and gas but disregards their differing values (similar to comparing a kilo of gold with a kilo of silver).
  • Proven reserves.  Again look for barrels of oil, not BOE.
  • Cash Flow from Investment (CFI).  Capex (cash spent to find/produce future oil), plus anything gained/lost from buying/selling their reserves.
One company at a time.

Exxon Mobil

Hard to tell if its an oil or gas company?  In 2013, 34% of production was oil and liquids, as measured by BOE, and 66% gas.

Oil and Gas production as (measured as BOE) has remained steady:
But after removing gas, liquids production (mostly oil) has fallen in the past 5 years:

Proven oil reserves (again, excluding gas) have fallen.

But CFI has risen steadily.

The end result is steadily increasing capex, for decreasing oil production and reserves.  Jim Chanos gave an interview last month (second video) stating that he is short XOM/long oil, as they cannot keep their dividend up if the price of oil remains low, and their BOE reserves may be overstated by the XTO acquisition (p12).  Chanos has previously been right about China, IBM and Petrobas, I'm not going to bet against him.

Shell

They are primarily an oil company - in 2013, 88% of their production (measured by BOE) was oil.

Oil and NGL production is trending down:

Shell restarted their reserves in 2014, so numbers before 2002 are meaningless.  Proven Oil and NGL reserves fell from 2012 to 2007, but have stopped falling since then:

CFI seems to be rising (though not as clearly as XOM):

Chevron

1/3rd of their 2013 production (measured by BOE) was gas - so its still mostly an oil company.

Oil production may or may not be declining:

Proven Oil reserves are clearly trending down, being replaced by gas.  Could not find figures for developed/undeveloped oil reserves:

Gas is generally cheaper than oil, though it depends on location since transportation is difficult.  For example, it costs around $3 per BTU in the Marcellus, but may be over $10 in Tokyo - after expensive liquefaction, transport and gasification.  So its a lot harder to determine profitability for a gas company than an oil company.

Again, CFI trending up:

BP

39% of their 2013 production was gas, 61% liquids, as measured by BOE.

Oil production has dropped off slightly in the past 5 years:

But Oil reserves are not going down!

CFI may be trending up, but not so clearly:

BP looks the best out of the majors.  Most of this is due to its investment in Russia: originally the joint venture TNK-BP, now converted to a 20% stake in Rosneft.   If we exclude Russia, the numbers look similar to the other companies:


So a bet on BP is a bet on Rosneft.

In terms of long-term value creation, BP is probably the best (or least worst) of the major oil companies.

[Update 30/Jan/2015: Spent three nights working with BP's figures trying to figure out how much it costs them to produce one barrel of oil, and their sensitivity to oil prices.  Couldn't make out anything.  Shit!  May just buy XLE or VDE instead.]