Another podcast abt the war

A different PoV from Anas Alhajji on Macrovoices.  He expects product (esp diesel) prices to rise, not crude:

• Oil market knows the war will drag on, even after the mid terms. 
• Iranian regime fractured: IRGC hardliners benefited greatly from sanctions.  These "rebel" factions benefit from Hormuz tolls.  Irans oil production increased substantially - in Feb 2026 Iran oil exports were highest since 2017. Hardliners benefit from prestige, control and money.  If everything goes back to normal, they lose everything.  They attacked ships and other countries to derail the negotiations.  The negotiating team does want to bring about a peace deal.
• Anas is not bullish on crude:
• During the crisis China reduced imports by 6m bpd, reducing price from 90s to 70s.  They did not draw down their inventory significantly: only 50m bbls.  Of the 6m:
• 800k-1m bpd was for filling their onshore inventory.  
• 1.5m for filling floating storage.  
• Banned exports of refined product (1m bpd decline in crude).
• A little declining consumption from declining growth.
• Significant domestic oil production increase.  
• Market was balanced at $75-85.
• So far decline in crude inventory levels has been is US & Japan SPRs, not commercial inventories.  This does not affect prices. 
• Only risk for a short term crude oil spike is Saudi/Houthi attacks - they had agreement where Saudi supported economy of Sanaa, while Houthis stopped attaching the Saudios.  It held well, but was broken.  May see attacks on ships in red sea (6m bbl/day - mostly Russian/Saudi oil).  4m bbls per day of Saudi crude at risk.   Would push prices way above $100.  Only for a short time as the Saudi/US response would be hard.  But a disruption is unlikely, they are likely to go back an agreement.
• US shale (light sweet) can produce gasoline but not diesel.
• SPR can only be refilled max 400k barrels a day.  Will not raise prices signifigantly.  China will not refill above $70.  SPR refilling creates a floor, but does not increase it.
• US refining sector running at 96-97% capacity, even if product demand recovers, they cannot take more crude inputs.
• Anas believes the US originally wanted Hormuz to be closed as a message to China:
• US wants "Energy Domination", both Trump and Biden want the US to supply energy to the world to make them dependent.  
• 75% of Helium comes from Qatar, that plant was destroyed in the beginning of the war, Bessent declared last month that semicon industry is returning to the US.  TW investment in Arizona, 150 bn, mis more than the revenues of Kuwait & Iraq for a year.  Asian energy prices rose more than US or Brent.  Giving their AI production problems.
• Straits closure hurts Asia/China more than the US.
• China weathered the storm well, but they cannot do it long term (eg: 1 more year).  China wants to help the US get out of the mess.
• But did not go according to US plan.  Bad execution.  Later when the US wanted the straits open, they cannot make the Iranians factions open it!  US does not have a problem with the Iranian negotiators.  Will it turn into a full scale conflict?  He believes it will not be a full scale war: they will attack the IRGC elements who attach the ships, not the regime, watch where the weapons and drones are coming from, and attack to weaken them substantially.  So the negotiations can continue.
• No one wants Iran to collapse, which would be a disaster (civil war, refugees).  Turkey wary of Kurds, Pakistan of Baloch.  
• Refined product is a problem, not crude:
• 3 refineries in Gulf (UAE, Kuwait, Saudi).  All their export of diesel and jet fuel is shut down.
• Trump released medium/sour crude from SPR for Asian refiners to produce diesel.
• Russian refining capacity lost to Ukranian drones (with US support).
• The US is now exporting products to countries they have never exported before.
• Most likely, will get rising diesel/gasoline prices, not crude.