After falling one-and-a-half years, crypto broke out last month, I managed to buy a tiny bit. It broke out again 2 weeks ago and corrected over the past few days, letting me buy bigly, up to a 6% position. Lets see if it keeps going up.
Other than that, just made a few small trades:
- Managed to add to some shorts, and Europe, Russel, some rate sensitive.
- And to some longs: software, consumer, and refiners (long oil/refiners is that same as shorting the market).
No change over the weekend. I had thought that Xi and Trump might come to some sort of deal. For example, the US could allow Iranian oil to be sold to China, if Xi lifted the export ban on refined products. Instead, the opposite may have happened.
And there was never any chance the Iran/US sides could reach a deal.
Expect the same as before. Iran gets slowly strangled, as oil/product grinds higher, pulling most stocks down, even as mag7 and the indices rise. Eventually the IRGC loses effectiveness and Hormuz gets fully restored.
Longer term, expecting a bear market next year. Here is a good interview:
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