Sold a little on the bounce

Gold and my portfolio corrected for 4 days before recovering last night.  Sold a little after the bounce because:

• I had too big a position.  It was 17%, excluding 2% silver.  And this is high-beta gold (miners and royalties), not low-beta pussy gold (GLD).  Now its around 14%.  Sometimes you think you can weather a drawdown till it slaps you in the face.
• A medium risk for the gold trade is the rising price of oil/diesel.  Rising inflation increases rate expectations.
• The US is trying to strangle Iran, who has an incentive to increase oil prices, possibly by kinetic action.  Gold trades as a risk-on asset, it fell throughout the war.
• A short term risk is Warsh's decision on the 16th.  I think the market is starting to price in a hike.  Gold either pops or drops that day.

Still think theres a 3/4th chance that gold continues trending upwards, from here and now.  I am bullish long term on gold as a neutral reserve currency, and as a hedge against governments inflating away their debts.  But I was sized too big.

Also got kicked out of some market broadening trades.  Small loss.

Separate from my trading, I sold half of Delfi, Indonesian chocolate manufacturer today.  Will probably sell the rest later:

• I've held it too long.  Over 5 years.  Its a cyclical that trades inversely to cocoa prices, not a compounder.  Its a perpetual value stock.
• Risk of cocoa prices continuing to rise next year from El Nino.
• Increasing Indonesian political risk.  Not the economic cycle, but degrading rule of law and institutions.  For example, they have stopped companies exporting commodities, offered immunity to money laundering charges to people buying government bonds, and replaced the central bank governor.  If things get worse, you could imagine them restricting dividend payouts by companies listed on foreign stock exchanges, for example.
• If we do get an El-Nino cocoa spike into next year, it might be worth buying back again then.

I'm now around 10% in cash.  Can buy a bit more, but I need to remind myself to relax and just take trades when I can.

I expect a bull market till the mid terms.  Bear in Dec or 1H27.  Looking forward to it.