Buying after Black Monday

What am I thinking?

In the short term: after the Nikkei's Black Monday I was expecting more turbulence for 1 or 2 months.  Someone who gets hit in the head with a baseball bat doesn't just get up and walk again the next day.  But the markets did recover the next day and have rebounded since.  I now think theres 60% chance the turbulence is behind us.

Medium term: Hedgeye sees slowing growth and inflation in Sept, but recovery after that.  No recession.  Their signals did get me out of my higher volatility exposure (BTC, silver, platinum) before the crash - while I choose to hold onto my lower-beta cashflow generating companies.  

Long term, the US dollar is gonna be devalued, I need to be holding stocks and commodities.  Cash is trash.

So I wanna buy stocks in the next two weeks, and commodities when Hedgeye signals them.

What am I doing?

• Bought more paper gold, now have 10%.
• Plus a few speculative positions.
• Currently buying a Malaysian stock now which got hit on Black Monday.  Not buying Japanese stocks, cause I get a headache trying to read their results.
• Am waiting to buy commodities (platinum, silver, plus copper & oil producers) when the Hedgeye trends signals change.  Maybe BTC.
• If we do get another quick crash (USD is oversold and gold/SPY overbought) I may buy gold miners.

The Malaysian stock I'm halfway through buying is Hartalega, a glove producer.  Very different from the stocks I usually buy:

• Its a cyclical and a turnaround play, as the world works off the glut of gloves stockpiled from covid.  Its now slightly profitable.
• They've been a long-term-term compounder. The type of company that can make me rich.
• They are a commodity user, their raw material (nitrile) is priced off energy.  Although I'm expecting high energy prices in years to come, I've got more than enough energy exposure.
• Full report here at Asian Century Stocks (paywalled).

The small speculative positions I added are:

• Two SGX companies rigs and OSVs.  Turnaround plays.  From Trader Ferg (paywalled).
• A Uranium company (From Unemployed Degen - paywalled).  Its risky and can go to zero.

My current positions:

I've been writing less about individual investment ideas and industries lately:

• Cause I'm busy with my day job.
• And there's a lot of excellent ideas already out there.  I used to want to find new ideas myself, which was an important part of learning.  But now I'm happy to be inspired by others (and investigate their work), or simply piggyback off it (if its detailed enough).  Substack is a game changer.
• I still think we're halfway through a decade of inflation.  There's only so many ways to say "Buy Inflation".

Need to be careful not to get stuck in my thinking.  "Inflation and Commodities" isn't a religion.  Eventually US debt gets inflated away and commodities reach unsustainable prices.  Then I start looking at "normal" companies (which use commodities as inputs and do well with low inflation).  Start learning again.

New Kitty.