Chaos and Commodities

Quick look at geopolitical events, black swans and how I'm positioned for them.

This is not to make money, but to stop getting killed in the markets.  Part of Risk Management.

The last 2 months have been crazy.

Trump vs Kamala

A Trump win probably means:

• Lower oil.  Drill baby drill.  And he is friends with the Saudis.  Michael Kao suggested he can do a security deal with MBS in exchange for lower oil prices.  (Edit: Probably requires congress approval?).  Makes sense: lower inflation and increased growth.  I think lower oil prices would lead to an economic boom for 1-2 years, then leading to rising oil prices as production comes up against hard supply constraints.

I can be less bullish on oil, and even hold companies that use oil as an input.

• Rebuild America.  Return manufacturing back to the US after decades of decline.  The USD is overvalued - partially because its a reserve currency which everyone invests their excess savings into.  JD Vance questioned its roles as a reserve currency.  A Trump victory could see a sudden, deliberate devaluation of the USD by around 10% or so (ht: Lyn Alden public newsletter).  This would lead to a spiral of other currency devaluations, with shiny yellow rocks being the only currency worth holding.

The currency devaluation(s) will happen anyway, but with Trump it can be overnight. Hold gold in place of cash.

If the Democrats win, Kamala seems to be left leaning and big government.  Her policies are price controls and handouts (ban grocery price gouging, don't allow landlords to raise rent more than 5% a year).  I think congress would need to approve new laws in order to implement this - unlikely to happen.  She is probably a continuation of Biden.  America will still get rebuilt, and the USD devalued, just slowly.  Low growth and high inflation.  Better for my energy and pipeline stocks.

Ukraine and Russia

Ukraine invaded Russia.  Probably for a morale boost, and to change perceptions of the war both at home and for the countries providing weapons.  They also now control a gas pumping station that provides half of natural gas to Europe (Hungary, Slovakia and Austria).  If I were them, I'd blow it.

It may also put them in a better bargaining position if Trump forces them to negotiate.  The current view is that Biden fully supports Ukraine, while Trump will throw them under the bus (JD Vance: "I don't really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another").  A counterpoint is that the current US policy is to support Ukraine only so they can continue fighting, but not so they can win.  Trump is a good negotiator, and he may put pressure on Russia (increasing Russian sanctions and Ukrainian weapons supplies, increasing global oil supplies), leading to a Korea-like armistice.

So long term:

• If Kamala wins, same as usual.  Ukraine may be ground down in a few years unless international support increases.
• If Trump wins, negotiations for 6-12 months.  Then a ceasefire.  How favourable to Ukraine we don't know.  Energy may drop, a lot if sanctions are lifted on Russia (enough to allow them to maintain production facilities).  Still no Russian gas piped to West Europe (you cant buy energy from someone who just burned down your neighbour's house), maybe its shipped elsewhere instead....LNG down, LNG transport up?  If its a bad deal for Ukraine, then Finland and Poland quickly build nukes.  Followed by South Korea, Japan, Taiwan.

Middle East

A rocket attack killed 12 Israeli children at the end of July.  Israel and Hezbollah may be headed for war.

This war would make Gaza look like a warm up.  Hezbollah is a lot tougher than Hamas: man-for-man their special forces are as good as Israel's.  Unlike Gaza, Lebanon has open orders allowing weapons and fighters to leak in.  Hezbollah's rockets can cause large scale damage to Israeli cities.  The land is mountainous like Afghanistan.  There might be a bigger hostage situation than in Gaza.  I'd expect the Israelis to win in around a year - they have no choice.

Neither Israel nor Lebanon have oil, so we don't really care.  Two possible black swans:

• Israel hits Iran, specifically Kharg island to stop oil revenues.
• High Lebanese civilian casualties in a year-long war cause Arab populaces to protest agains their governments.  Worst case they overthrow their governments, really bad for oil production.  70% of Lebanon's population is Muslim, evenly split between Sunni and Shia, so the Arabs might not care if non-muslims or Shia get killed.

Both cases benefit my non-middle-east energy stocks.

Myanmar Civil War

Source: ResearchGate

~10% of the worlds tin comes from Wa state, bordering China and the Shan state.  The Wa State Army is (was?) allied with the ruling Junta against the Shan. Wa is in effect a Chinese satellite state.  Its a mountainous jungle region, so I think it can maintain control.  So tin production should not be affected by the civil war.

The rebels appear to be winning the civil war: they need to prove the can capture a city.  This would be the beginning of the end.  Myanmar may end up a satellite state of China. Some links:

• Warographics (April) Rebel forces make gains, possible post-war scenarios.
• Warographics (July) Rebel forces make more gains, can't see the Junta winning.
• Peter Zeihan (August) is pessimistic and thinks the Chinese do not want to control Burma, just keep it weak and divided.

UK Riots

Riots occured in the UK over migrants, sparked by fake news.  But the causes have been simmering years (Rotterdam sex grooming gangs, two tier policing).  British have continually voted against immigration, only to get more of it.  Jailing people who post on twitter does not fix the root causes of this, just adds fuel for the next fire.  Expect more riots in the months or years ahead.  

This problem will only go away when there's a government who promises to reduce unwanted (ie: Muslim) immigration.  Lets see if anyone runs on this in next year's May election.  Edit: The next election is 2029, they are fucked.

Not sure if this affects the wider economy, or the UK banks I'm looking at.  Really widespread riots would hit the economy.  An unexpected election result (like Brexit) would hit the stock market.  But these are one-off event that may or may not happen, I can't stop investing to wait for them.  Just limit any UK exposure.  Or trade the stocks as cyclicals, don't buy and hold.

China and Taiwan

No ones know what Xi is thinking. So I give a 20% chance for an invasion of Taiwan.  Either because he gets bad (or no) advice, or he sees CCP rule ending.  Most likely it would be a full out missile strike (also against US and Japanese forces) followed by an invasion - half-measures like a Chinese blockade gives the US forces to move, decreasing the odds of a successful invasion. (And the US can also blockade China).  An invasion can only occur during April or October.

I haven't found any hedge against this.  If it happens, global GDP goes down 10%.  Stocks may be cut in half immediately.  Most commodities would be hammered, as seaborne supplies to China get disrupted.  Gold may go up, but paper gold may fall with everything else in the panic.  USD spikes.

Nothing I can do about, so not worth thinking too hard.  I have no exposure to HK/China stocks, which would go to zero.  But the rest of my portfolio would be hit.  Limit my leverage.

Conclusion

Trump may give us economic growth and lower oil prices for a while.  Ukraine ceasefire bearish for energy.  Long term, the value of money goes down.  Don't hold USD - unless China invades Taiwan.

This post is a little depressing.  Next time I'll post cat pictures or something.