Sunday, February 23, 2020

Bought TLT

Bought TLT (20 year treasuries) in 14th Feb.  310 shares at $144.78.

Mostly as a hedge for my China/India and IAG positions.

SPY is overextended, but still keeps going up.  Gold and long-term bonds are also going up, so they don't believe in the previous sentence.  I wait for SPY to drop, probably taking the rest of my stocks with it, and for the Fed to lower rates by a lot (0.5 or 1%).  Gold and TLT cushion me in this scenario, and give me some money to play with if the market corrects like in 4Q18.

This weekend, the coronavirus has broken out in Italy and South Korea, spectacularly for the latter.  Markets should go down....but with so much stimulus, I don't know if they will.

I am now:
  • 50% invested in stocks.  Slightly more than half of that is long term dividend stocks (mostly Netlink Trust & Manulife US Reit).
  • 35% in cash
  • 15% in Gold Financing Companies and TLT.  Should go up if SPY goes down, thought they are going up now anyway.

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