Thursday, February 13, 2020

Bought shares in IAG

Based on the report at undervalued shares  (Its $50 per year to join).  Buffet bought into US airlines in 2016; the European airlines are not yet as consolidated at the US airlines were then, but they are expected to consolidate further.

Its trading at 7.5X earnings, a low valuation, with a reasonable leverage (and fleet age), and decent operating margins.

The main risk here is a US recession.  I guess a 50 percent chance of a recession starting in 2020/2021, else we get a slowdown and the recession comes a few years later.  I've bought a 5% position.

This is a long term buy-and-hold stock.  The only one I have found at a reasonable price in the last few years.  If it rises to a reasonable valuation (like 12 to 15 times earnings), I may sell to buy back in the next recession.

Bought 3213 shares at 7.594 Euros on BM last night.  I held off a while, waiting for the coronavirus impact on airline stocks...which dosen't seem to be happening.  Eventually I bit the bullet - at 7 and a half times earnings, just buy.

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