Thursday, January 2, 2020


The news from India has been bad for the past few years.  There was a painful demonitization in 2016.  A GST in 2017.  GDP growth has been falling the past year, and last quarter's 4.5% growth is one of the lowest in the past 25 years:

Source: Trading Economics

Indian stocks are flat-to-down over the past 2 years:

I think India is due for a cyclical rebound in the next few quarters.  Helped by last September's fiscal stimulus, which should power their market for a few years like Trump's 2017 stimulus did.

I'm long several Indian ETFs: 2% INDA (large caps), 1% each SMIN and SCIF (small caps), and 1% Fairfax India (Prem Watsa's fund with interesting holdings, but very high fees).

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