I've changed my mind. Not confident on this one, as new ships can be built in 18-24 months, limiting any sustained rise in prices. We can't just look at a 10-year chart and say the BDI is gonna go back to 2008 levels. I think the time to buy shipping stocks is when even the best players have been losing money for 1 or 2 quarters - when things are so bad they can only get better. At that point, you may get 50% upside. It would be a small trade - trying to catch a falling knife - and I would be dribbling in slowly... maybe 1% after one bad quarter and another 1% after a second.
If I want to play at all. Shipping is a tough sector. There's no way to value a shipping company - earnings and vessel values are cyclical.
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