SGX Breadth again

Chart on previous post had an error, the stocks were not filtered by price correctly. It was supposed to be only sub-20c stocks, but all were included, and warrants were also included.

Here is one counting one month (25 day) new closing highs for all SGX stocks:


If we suspect the 'breakout' is caused by too many penny stocks flying, this one excludes stocks that closed below 20c on each day being calculated for:

This one excludes stocks that closed below 50c on each day being calculated for:

Just in case we still suspect penny stocks, this counts only the ones trading below 20c on the day being calculated for. ie: opposite of second graph.


I can only conclude, the rally in the last 2 days was broad based. And it was not based based on penny stocks.

SGX breadth jumps

Note: Graph here has an error, see next post.

In the last 2 days' rally, SGX breadth jumped significantly. Scattered dots below are the number of stocks above 20c (as of today's price) making 1 month highs. Looking at the 'peak' readings (dots marked with green circles) breadth has been declining since August. Last 2 days shows a clear break in this trend.

Is this the start of a new bull? My guess is... yes.

The number of new highs, although larger than the previous 4 months, is still a lot lower than in the Apr and Aug peaks, so this rally could have some way to run. Also, the SGX top 20 vol shows only 5 stocks below 20c, so there isn't too much junk flying yet.


TOL:

I need to be more aggressive in buying. How?

• The mkt does seem overbought after 6 straight up days (US indices), should I wait for a pullback? Would only be expecting a brief 1-2 day pullback, similiar to the Mar rally.
• Many stocks are now quite far (mabye 10%) away from their support (cut-loss levels).
  
• Maybe I should just double up my existing successful bets, which were small, as bought in a non-trending market.
  

US mkt: start of new rally?

Last week, all 3 indexes broke out of a 6 week trading range. The only problem is that vol was low due to the Christmas hols, so hard to confirm if this is real. I also don't have market breadth figures.
All 3 indexes currently up 6 consecutive days....is the market overbought? If we are in a bull, I only expect short 1-2 day pullbacks, similar to the Mar rally.

Bought Straits Asia

Bought 3 lots @ $2.52 yesterday, 28th Dec 09.

Was bought to my attention by my broker 8 days ago - a broken inverse H&S:

Neckline (cut-loss) at $2.33.

I bought yesterday, No real reason for the timing except that I'm looking for stocks with a clear cut loss point. It was on top volume list. The market is crazy now.

Bought Yangzijang

Bought 7 lots on @$1.18 on 18th Dec 09.

Hoping for a 'bounce back' after correction in uptrend. Can't say if it has worked yet. Cut-loss would be at $1.12.

Bought NOL

My broker called to recommend this one and I remembered it was another triangle. She recommended at $1.54, but I only got in a few hours later.

Bought 6 lots @ $1.58 on 18th Dec 09.

Bought Hong Fok

Bought 13 lots @ 64.5c on 7th Dec 09.

Noticed it as it had a triangle with well defined support, up days on higher volume and MACD-H Divergence. Bought after it seemed to break the triangle - the price has not moved for two weeks since.

SGX breadth sucks

The graph below shows STI (blue) with the daily number of SGX stocks making 1 month highs (the scattered dots) since the start of the March rally. These are smoothed as a 1-month moving average (red line). Sub 20c stocks are excluded.

The divergence since Aug is too clear. How long can this continue? Either the STI must go down, or the number of stocks making highs must go up.

I did not find this indicator useful in predicting past market tops. So it is only to show what is happening now.

Bought SIA Eng

Tues 24th Nov 09. Bought 3 lots @ 3.07.

Cut loss 2.85.

SIA Eng

After 5 months of flatlining, breaks out on high vol.

Large C&H.

Sppt @ 2.85, next resistance at 3.25.

Still a non trending market until proven otherwise, makes me hesitant to buy on breakout.

Perfect buy point would have been several days ago after it pulled back to the support.

Bought KepLand

Fri 20th Nov 09: bought 3 lots @ $3.05.

Cut loss at $2.75 (previous low).

KepLand breakout?

$3.00 is the previous June high, as well as 50% of the white candlestick.

Pros:

• Clearly broken out on high vol, with low vol retracement.
• Daily price/vol action shows accumulation since July.

Cons:

• Buy on breakout risky in non-trending mkt. Next sppt after $3.00 is hard to determine. At what point would I cut loss?

US mkt currently down nearly 2% tonight, see how it goes and how this S'pore mkt reacts tmr. Will KepLand hold at $3.00?

Bought Bukit Sembawang, Rotary Engineering

Wed 18th-Nov-09:

• 10 lots Rotary Engineering @ 1.07
• 2 lots Bukit Sembawang @ 4.88

Both showing MACD-divergence, may have broken out of trendline. I await: HH on high vol.

My scanning criteria. I want:

• tocks that have not fallen much in the past 2 month.
• Volume should be high on up-days and lower on down days. Rotary shows this, BS a little. In the current market, there are a lot of stocks showing distribution (eg: SGX, Guocoland).
• MACD or MACD-H divergence with price.

I took positions abt half my normal size, because still not sure of overall market direction:

• US indexes making new highs, but no solid volume confirmation, and depth had not confirmed the uptrend (12th Nov) either.
• Singapore market seems trendless.
• But the individual charts good with well defined cut loss points... must remind myself that by the time everything is perfect, the opportunity will be gone.

With hindsight, bought at intraday high as they went down today :( But at least today's down was light volume.

Added more money

+70K to my account.

Now have 225K cash, almost all of my savings.

Sold everything

Because we are in a correction.

Today (2nd Nov 09):

• 10 lots Midas @81.5c
• 20 lots Boustead @ 73.5c
• 2 lots Kep Corp @ $8.07
• 12 lots RMG @ $1.33

Singapore market (not juat STI) is holding up remarkably well.

Update tomorrow (3rd Nov 09):

• Sold 26 lots Cambridge @ 44.5c

Calculated a nett 28K gain (approx 28%) over 2.5 years (July 08 to now)... this includes a terrible bear market and probably the fastest recovery we'll see in our lives. Includes dividends, and estimates brokerage.

Now keep a watchlist of counters showing strength - this correction may end in a week or two.

Watching Bukit Sembawang

Has held up well:

Bought 1 lot at 4.82 and 4 lots at $4.83 in the past few weeks, but sold them at $4.79. Lets see if it holds up during the correction.

US market: finally in downtrend

S&P500 now down 5% from its high, and showing clear patterns of distribution.

Should have sold after the weak vol rebound on Thurs, but too busy/tired at work. Sell tomorrow, even though SGX will be hammered. Holding will just compound the mistake.

I still think this is a correction in a liquitidy-driven uptrend, which may end next year. Keep reminding myself: I do not know for sure.. do not know how far the market will fall until after it happens.

From memory (no records) most corrections last for 2 weeks. Correction is now one week old and 5% down. So I should be still look for opportunities - monitor stocks showing strength and see.

Just a note that IBD's distribiution day count method was a little unreliable in the 2 months leading to this downturn. There were many 'market under pressure' calls amd one false 'market under correction' in Mid Aug - which was corrected a day later'. Probably does not work in a non-trending market, wait at least a few days for confirmation (weak volume rebound) before rushing to sell.

Sold China Fish, Straits Asia

Sold 5 lots Straits Asia on 14th Oct 09 @ $2.04.
Sold 6 lots China Fish on 19th Oct 09 @ $1.29.

SC Global

Summary of article on SC Global (BT, Mon Oct 5th 09, Ven Sreenivasan). Future reference for next bear market, need to verify the figures below:

• 1$.42bn debt
• But asset base is 2.38bn - is developable land valued at cost.
• 900,000 sq ft landbank, target and higg end of market. 400 units unsold inventory in projects such as the Marq, Hilltops and Martin No 38.
• Landbank carried on bookas an avg cost of $1500 psf (is this cost price?)
• Company has sold 20% of its inventory, and is collecting payments progressively.

US market: going up on low volume

Not sure. My view:

• This rally is driven by liquidity, not fundamentals. Unlike '98, Asia cannot export its way out. Expect years for the world economy to rebalance. Governments in every country, from the US to China to Australia to Singapore have given some sort of 'stimulus package'. One day the morphine will wear off.
• My gut feel is that the rally still has some way to go. I dont feel the optimisim for the end of a bull. Still, I could be wrong - this sentinment is not a measurable indicator. I await further signs eg: penny stocks (sub 5c) on SGX hitting top 20 vol, more bullish news reports, less doubt, more participation by the masses.

US market has been making new highs in low vol since August:

Graph from Bespoke Investment group showing breadth has improved since August (possibly since July).

Uncertain. Market may still be in trading range - so I'll buy on dips, cut loss when going up. The S&P chart above shows the mini-rallies from July to now lasted 8-13 days. Tomorrow will be day 7 of the current 'mini rally'. The SGX has now gone back to faithfully following the previous night's US moves (where it used to preceed them).

Sold Olam

Sold Olam Mon 12th Oct 09 @ $2.58. Beacuse my broker recommneded it as it looked 'oversold', and she was the one that got me into the stock in the first place.

Yanlord: close but not convincing

Was tempted to buy, but on second look, price/vol behaviour is unconvincing.

Cut loss SGX and Epure

Sold 1 lot SGX @ $8.21 on 6th Oct 09. Buying was a mistake - the breakout was not real - and the subsequent chart action confirms this:

Also sold 10 lots Epure @ 55.5c the dame day as it broke below support. The future price action is not so bad - still too early to tell if it has broken the uptrend.

I wanted to sell both the day before but my broker advised me to wait.

Keppl vs SCI: price/vol action

Buying SCI was a mistake.

Two things:

• Price/vol action is wrong. Keppel is showing up days on higher vol and down days on lower vol. SCI shows the opposite.
• At the breakout (blue stars), SCI's volume does not clearly exceed the previous volume spike (end August). Keppel's breakout volume does exceed any previous spike.

Sold 3 lots SCI @ $3.34, Tues 29-Sept-09.

US market: dipping again

US markets dipped in the past few days, scoring distribution days:

From IBD:

• Since this uptrend began in March, the Nasdaq's declines haven't exceeded 8%.
• The key now will be to watch for additional distribution days and any sign of change in the recent pattern of 4% to 8% dips.

Longer term, I have no conviction in this rally, but for now, I believe this to still be a bull market, until proven otherwise. Driven by liquidity, and the market's need to further humiliate the bears. One caveat: sometimes no catalyst is needed for a bear market to start.

Looking for ways to go long... to buy without risking too much. I am buying counters that are oversold or close to support levels. That way, if the market turns bearish, or into a trading market, its easier to take the loss. If the market goes up.. the upside will take care of itself.

No FA - nothing cheap enough for long term investment.

To see what Buffet owns

Goto http://www.sec.gov/ --> search --> 'EDGAR full text search' which leads to their MainAccess page
Click on Advanced Search page.
Enter in:

• Form type: "13F-HR"
• Central Index Key (CIK): 1067983
• Current end date, and start date sometime in the past.

The results are given in tables. Column 5 (Shares or Principal Amount) is the important one. eg:

Column 1	Column 5
------------------	--------------------
Johnson & Johnson	Shares or Principal Name of Issuerer Amount $
	13,509,591
	325,300
	9,087,200
	792,000
	575,000
	3,897,300

Add up all the numbers in this column for the total number of shares owned by Berkshire. Compare it with the numbers from different quarters to see if they are buying or selling.

13F forms are published within 45 days after the quarter end.

Or else, just google for 'berkshire hathaway 13F' or 'buffet holdings' to see if someone else has already done the work.

Bought Allgreen, Keppel

Fri 11 Sept:
- Bought 7 lots Allgreen @ 1.26

Tues 15 Sept:
- Bought 1 lot KepCorp @ 8.09

Bought Midas, SGX

Thurs 10 Sept 09, bought:
- 10 loys Midas @ 84c
- 1 lot SGX @ 8.81

Bought Olam, Epure

Wed 9th Sept 09, bought:
- 10 lots Epure @ 63.5c
- 4 lots OLAM @2.38

Charts later.

Bought China Fish, SCI, Straits Asia

Mon 7th Sept 09, bought:
- 3 lots Sembcorp Industrial @ $3.32
- 5 lots Straits Asia @ $2.06
- 6 lots China Fish @ $1.29

Other charts

SCI:

SC Global:

CapitaRetail China:

Using MACD-H to find extreme shakeout

Refining the 4-red-1-green rule to find situations where an uptrending stock has been sold off enough to shakeout the weaker holders.

1) Bull market. Stock in uptrend.

2) Recent sharp fall in price, usually several black candles - to shakeout the weaker players.

3) MACD-H is at its lowest point since the start of the rally/uptrend, signalling the severity of the shakeout.

4) When it turns green, hopefully the shakeout is over and stock can shoot up now that the weaker holders are gone.

Past examples:

CDL Hospitality (start Aug):

SATS (start Aug):

The current selloff is caused by SIA shareholders selling - should I play it now? Such abnormal selling may be distorting the chart.

CAO:

Current Examples:

See Hup Seng:

Straits Asia:

Sold

Sold these:

Wed 18th Aug 09

• 13 lots MIDAS @ 67c
• 2 lots Venture @ $8.26
• 12 lots Hi-P @ 65c
• 4 lots Wheelock @ $1.75
• 10 lots Broadway @ 52c
• 8 lots Frasers Centerpoint @ 98c
• 5 lots SATs @ 2.45
• 4 lots Yanlord @ 2.36

Thurs 19th Aug 09

• 6 lots A-REIT @ 1.62

Most of these trades were either losing trades, or else ones I was holding because 'they were going up'. Sold because IBD signalled a downturn, but was a false signal. US mkt shot up on Fri.

Bought Yanlord

Fri 14th Aug 09, bought 4 lots @ $2.53

Was near support, and MACD histogram turned green.

Am having second thought now, due to the behaviour of the SSE.....Also not sure if the price/vol behaviour of the stock is correct - it fell in high vol in early Aug.

US market: July rally

After 1 month see-sawing, the market jumped fast and furious - with only 1-or-2 day pullbacks, similar to the Mar rally.

Difficult time for retail investors - with no pullbacks to enter, your options are to close your eyes and buy, or wait for the pullback.

Pullback has occured on the last few days, with all 3 indexes giving a distribution day. Unexpectedly good employment numbers on Fri - market rallied as expected, but the Nasdaq looks a little tired.

Not enough for a change in the trend... the trend is up, look to go long. I still don't believe in the fundamentals of this rally, but need to be on board - no point trying to second guess when it will turn.

Bought SATS, Venture

Wed 5th Aug. Bought 5 lots SATS @ $2.14. Was close to support. 4-red, 1-green.

Also bought 1 lot venture @ $8.74.

Panic Buying

On Mon 27th Jul, bought:

• 10 lots broadway @ 42.5c
• 4 lots wheelock $$1.88
• 12 lots Hi-p @ 69.5
• 1 lot Venture @ $8.30
• 8 lots Frasers Centerpoint @ $1.07

There was no real plan, no TA, just buying tech and high-beta stocks because the Nasdaq is going up. The rally is too strong, dont want to be left out. Now abt 70% invested.

Long term, I still don't believe in this rally's fundamentals. But need to be on board.

Allgreen

US mkt going up, mkt action looks sustaiable so far. Want to buy high beta stocks - peoperty is one such sector.

Allgreen is one such stock, but the candlestick suggests I should wait:

Selling

Started selling.

Wed 18th Jul:
- 8 lots Wheelock@ $1.55, 2 lots $1.54 (cut thru $160 sppt)

Thurs 19th Jul:
- 11 lots pfood @57.5
- 2 lots venture @6.98
- 3 lots SIA Eng @2.65
- 4 lots Yanlord @2.40
- 1 lot SGX @ 6.99

Still holding Boustead, Cambridge, A-REIT, RMG, Midas

Should I sell?

US mkt has been rangebound for a while, falling, but without enough volume to break the uptrend. Trend bending but not broken. Can go either way.

To KISS, I hold stocks in a uptrend as long as possible until a definite break in the trend. Buy on fundamentals, sell on chart. I look for:
1) Lower high, lower low
2) reversal patterns (double top, H&S).
3) Support and resistance
4) Short term candlestick patterns. Just started looking at these.
I don't believe in trendlines as they always get redrawn.

Pfood:
Can't see resistance/support lines. But the large vol for the 3 days circled in May will be resistance:
Stock has not performed well. No clear uptrend. Weekly chart shows large consolidation from Oct - can go either way.
Would like to sell this one as it has underperformed the rally but can't see where to. Cannot see trend at all.

Venture:
Uptrend flattening but not clearly broken. Hold.
Can the last candle (hammer) act as a short-term reversal? Need to see if confirmed.


SIA Eng:
(Daily) Uptrend slowing, no cause for me to sell yet.

(Weekly) If it clears resistance around 2.90, there is no resistance for a while.



Cambridge:
No sign of reversal *yet*.

Wheelock:
May be reversing, hard to tell.

If we zoom in, it has very barely made a lower high and lower low.
I can choose to keep holding until a more descisive breakdown, or sell half.

Boustead:
Cant see anything. No Support, no resistance, no higher highs and lows, nothing.
No reversal sign. Gone down recently - 50% retraction of the sharp run-up from May around 60c, so its still considered normal.
Hold. The chart is so hard to read I will probably only sell this when the whole market changes.

RMG:
Cant read this chart either. Not in a downtrend, so hold.

Yanlord:
Zoom in and it may barely be forming a lower high, lower low. Not definate. Zoom out and its still in an uptrend.

Midas:
Still in uptrend in the past few days, defying the market. Announced big contract on 22nd Jun.