Bought 3 lots wilmar @ 2.89 (11-12-08):
Wilmar might be considered a 'China stock' because it sells a lost of palm oil in China.
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Bought Li Heng and Wilmar
Bought 25 lots Li Heng at 31c (9-12-08):
Bought 3 lots wilmar @ 2.89 (11-12-08):
Wilmar might be considered a 'China stock' because it sells a lost of palm oil in China.
Bought 3 lots wilmar @ 2.89 (11-12-08):
Wilmar might be considered a 'China stock' because it sells a lost of palm oil in China.
Saturday, December 13, 2008
Cambridge got Refinancing!
Refinance $390m for 3 years throught 3 banks: HSBC, NAB and Royal Bank of Scotland.
Note that: "A portion of the Loan is subject to syndication on normal market conditions". So we are not completely there yet.
My calculations for how this will affect DPU:
Note that: "A portion of the Loan is subject to syndication on normal market conditions". So we are not completely there yet.
My calculations for how this will affect DPU:
- Quarterly borrowing costs (from 3Q08 results) will rise from 3.1m (@3.1%pa) to 6.6m (@6.6%pa).
- Reducing their revenue by 10% to account for the recession, and following my previous calculations (here and here), I get a yield of 3c per share.
China textile industry consolidates
Interesting post from D.O.G abt consolidation in the China textile industry after years of growth.
According to this article from a PR firm (I cannot confirm the figures) on Li Heng:
According to this article from a PR firm (I cannot confirm the figures) on Li Heng:
- In 2007, China became worlds largest nylon producer... but is still a net nylon importer, relying on imports for high-grade nylon.
- The nylon produced by Li Heng is of a quality that borders on domestic and import grade (e.g.: undergarments, swimwear)
- Li Heng is a leading producer of high-end nylon in China with a 15% market share...and has one of the highest operating margins (34%) among textile players
- Polyamide, a by-product of oil, comprises over 90% of Li Heng’s cost of sales.
- Inventory management is important as nylon has a shelf life of only 5 months
- To address cost pressures, Li Heng is looking to produce its own polyamide by 3Q09
Bought Midas
Bought 14 lots at 57.5 cents on Wed (9-1-08).
It is one of the few stocks in an uptrend. Price/vol action does not look so good however, monitor to make sure the pullback is in lower volume.... Fridays action was a bit worrying.
Just trying to ride the trend. Techincals only, no fundamentals.
It is one of the few stocks in an uptrend. Price/vol action does not look so good however, monitor to make sure the pullback is in lower volume.... Fridays action was a bit worrying.
Just trying to ride the trend. Techincals only, no fundamentals.
Moody's cuts rating for Frasers Centerpoint
(Dec 1st 09) Moodys has downgraded Frasers centerpoint to Baaa1 rating (medium grade), saying it does not have 'scale and diversity' and is unlikely to obtain it.
Picture of US market turning bullish
Shows the markets change in tone in the last 3 weeks.- First week (21st-28th Nov): market is still in correction. We have clear price/vol divergence. 5 days in a row!
- Second week (1st-5th Dec): collapse on Monday, follow thru day on Tues. Rest of the week has up days on higher vol and down days on lower vol. Friday's employment report was shocking, but the market ignored it. This 'ignoring bad news' has switched me to bullish.
- Third week (8th-12th Dec): One distribution day on Thurs, not enough to derail the rally (The volume from Yahoo seems to be wrong - IBD registered it as having +4% higher vol than the previous day). For the second and third weeks, all the other days were up days on higher vol and down days on lower vol.
- Continuation of up days on higher vol and down days on lower vol. No more distrrinution days.
- How does the market react to bad news?
- Need to see Dow break thru 50MA:
I think theres a 60-70% change this is the start of a tradeable rally. Excpecting a 20-30% bear market rally - use trailing stop loss. Cut loss if it fails in the first place.
Monday, December 8, 2008
Barry Ritholtz: S&P oversold
Extracts from here (dated Dec 7th 08):
"Over the past 100 years, we’ve only seen the relative strength of the S&P 500 drop to this level five times, and each time, it has been a major buying opportunity, although not necessarily a major bottom. If you look at 1929, it was a low but it wasn’t the low, and there was a bounce. It was the same thing after Sept. 11 — from Sept. 21, you had a 40% bounce in the Nasdaq before you went down to make all-time lows."
"There is a significant rally, 20% or 30%, waiting to happen. But there’s also the possibility of a lower low, as we get deeper into the recession, if things take a terrible turn for the worse."
"The most important [rule] is that we always have a stop-loss...we use trailing stop-loss...When the market starts heading south, we get taken out."
"Over the past 100 years, we’ve only seen the relative strength of the S&P 500 drop to this level five times, and each time, it has been a major buying opportunity, although not necessarily a major bottom. If you look at 1929, it was a low but it wasn’t the low, and there was a bounce. It was the same thing after Sept. 11 — from Sept. 21, you had a 40% bounce in the Nasdaq before you went down to make all-time lows."
"There is a significant rally, 20% or 30%, waiting to happen. But there’s also the possibility of a lower low, as we get deeper into the recession, if things take a terrible turn for the worse."
"The most important [rule] is that we always have a stop-loss...we use trailing stop-loss...When the market starts heading south, we get taken out."
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