Since the rally started a month ago, my performance has been bad. Minus 1.5% vs plus 8% for SPY:
First, the stuff I am holding did not go up.
Energy Infrastructure and Var Energi. Almost 30% of my holdings:
Precious metals (was around 15 to 18% of my portfolio). Down in the second half of the month, as US economic growth re-asserts itself. I got stopped out of silver and platinum last week.
A bunch of misc US ETFs. Mostly flatlined since the 17th:
EMs. Again flatlined since the 17th, except for Korea (semis):
Second, the market has been volatile, since I went bullish on the 17th. A few days up, a few days down. With a slight downward bias. I hate choppy markets.
Macro doesn't work so well in this kind of environment. It works well mapping the rates-of-change of the economic cycles. eg: After N straight quarters of growth, comparisons are so hard you can predict the next few quarter's growth rates will be lower. But it doesn't work so well in hot wars. No way to model what Trump or the Mullahs are going to do.
Used yesterday's pop to:
- Cut back on the things not working. Especially gold. Ethereum.
- Cut back some higher beta plays. Mostly LATAM.
- Cut back some things shot up. Other EMs and ETFs still working. I may buy them back at a lower price if I get a chance.
I need to change my mindset. I'm usually worried about missing out on the next big rally. Need to remind myself that its OK to hold cash, and I can sit back wait for trades to come to me. And also to take some profit if the market moves my way for a few days.
I'm not a fund manager trying to raise money. I don't need to beat SPY all the time. Can reduce my risk when I'm not comfortable.
I made a lot of money being piggy in the last 2 years. Time to change, need to be more nimble in this kind of market. Or maybe just less exposed.
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