Peace Deal

Was caught offside.  The market was overbought, and should have fallen on any news that fell short of a peace deal.  We got a peace deal.

I think there's an 80% chance it will stick:

• Trump doesn't want economic disruption to derail the mid-terms.
• The IRCG doesn't want to be overthrown after Iran's economy is bombed into oblivion.

The Israelis might de-rail it.  Or parts of the IRGC (compartmentalised from each other) may keep shooting.  The Gulf states might want to finish the IRGC, but have no militaries.

Changed my positions:

• Covered all my shorts.  Lost ~1.5% in a night from them.  Its probably the worst time to do it, but once I'm wrong I prefer to cut my positions and start with a clean slate.
• Covered my short term war trades (BNO, Corn).  Kept Var Energi as its a low cost producer.
• Loaded up on some more EMs.   LATAM stocks, the high-beta ones that I sold before.  An India stock, as India was badly affected by the war.
• Looked at Dubai, but not attractive.  I think Dubai recovers - from blown up high-rises to normalcy - but there will be a new geopolitical risk premium unless the IRGC is overthrown.  The Iran drone risk.   The stocks just weren't valued attractively enough.  eg: Dubai stock exchange at 20X recurring earnings.
• Delfi (Indonesian chocolate company) shot up 15% on no news, maybe because of the peace deal.

Looking for more things to buy that were affected by the war.  Maybe EMs, maybe copper.