Bought more of the Polish stock exchange (GPW), 1% last Monday as it fell, and 2% last night, as Poland moved into Hedgeye's bullish trend. Now its a 5% position in a boring, cyclical exchange-type business that pays 80% of its earnings as dividends.
Considerations:
- Europe has been in recession for the past three years, and is now moving into a period of higher growth. Poland should benefit from a Ukraine peace deal.
- The post-election Trump euphoria for both the USD and Mag7 has reversed. Now its tariffs and DODGE. And a lower USD, starting with lower interest rates. I am looking to increase my EM exposure, especially countries with high USD debt (Indonesia, Philippines).
- Risk off. Bursting of the Mag7/crypto/momo bubble may drag the other S&P 493 stocks down with it. If its messy enough, with VIX in the 30's, it may drag the rest of the world's markets down too. I am betting such a mess would be over in a month or two.
- Moving to disinflation. Instead of buying commodity producers, I'm looking for companies that use commodities.
- Energy is getting killed. Especially my Canadian energy (CNQ).
- My US oil pipelines are moving down slowly, though I intend to hold them long term. Should benefit from a re-industrialising US in years to come, but it may be a bumpy patch in the next few months. These stocks have an outsized impact on my portfolio because they've grown so much.
- Hartalega got killed by worse-than-expected results. The position has moved from a 100K profit to a loss. Its more volatile than bitcoin. Win some, lose some.
Rough allocation:
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