Saturday, March 18, 2017

US Growth Expected

Last month, ECRI stated that they see a genuine cyclical upturn in growth which will last for at least six months, maybe longer.    But growth will be lower than past cycles, at 1-2%.  3% is unlikely.

This doesn't mean the US stock market will go up - high expectations may already be priced in.  But it means lower unemployment, rising inflation, and rising interest rates.  Probably globally.  Including gently increasing growth in Singapore.  And higher USD1 with lower gold.  I don't know about commodity prices, since demand (from China) and supply are bigger factors.

I'll still be holding a lot of cash though, as stock markets are expensive and its hard to find things to buy.

ERCI's predictions have been pretty good, though they made a bad recession call in 2011.

1 Higher USD vs other global currencies, not necessarily against SGD.  But a lot depends on the Euro.   No way to know if the EU will breakup till after the French and Italian elections.  

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