If US rates go up, how much will Singapore banks benefit?
SIBOR tends to follow the fed funds rate:
And the banks' Net Interest Margins (NIM) roughly follow it:
Its hard to tell, because the correlation is not direct, and there is probably a lag. I'll assume that NIM goes back up to 2%, which is about halfway back to the highest level, and roughly what it was in 2010. If this happens, I estimate that all three banks would increase their earnings by 15-20%.
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