Sunday, December 18, 2011

Stocks I'm interested in

Still waiting for a recession, and drawing up a list of stocks that I want to buy. And others that I still have to look in to (*).

Dominators: Buffet-like companies, with large market share and only a handful of competitors, these companies have a sustainable competitive advantage in their industries. These stocks will never go to zero, and could rise 50-100% from bear market trough to bull. Might be possible to hold these stocks forever:
  • Coca Cola: Buffet's largest holding. Strong distribution network gives it a moat.
  • UPS: Only a 2 or 3 competitors worldwide, and one in the US. Buffet also holds some.
  • Diageo: Largest spirits producer in the world , and a cashcow; sales nearly double its closest competitor.

Local Blue chips: Big players in Singapore or the region: Also will probably never go to zero, though they do not have a sustainable competitive advantage. Usually rise 50-150% from bear market trough to bull:

  • Diary Farm: Large player in Asia supermarkets & convenience stores. Low debt, generates cash.
  • SIA Engineering (*). Or maybe STE (*).
  • Raffles Medical Group (*), or possible its overseas competitors (eg: The hospital in Thailand...).
  • A property development company (freehold property only): Wheelock, SC Global (*), or CDL (*). Wheelock has historically been the most astute in its timing, but has been doing nothing for the past few years. Check the others, esp. their debt, and how their properties are values on their balance sheet.
  • Eu Yang Sang: Low debt, and a long history of being profitable and generating free cashflow.
  • Goodpack (*): Large share of natural rubber shipments, and gaining share in artificial rubber. Has it started generating free cashflow yet?

Small fry. Risky, but I try to target those with few competitors and good balance sheets, to avoid the ones that go to zero. These are also very illiquid. May rise 2-4 times from bear to bull.

  • Petra: Love their branded consumer distribution, as a producer and distributor of Chocolates in Indonesia. Not so keen on their cocoa processing.
  • Silverlake Axis (*): Handles a large proportion of banking transactions in SEA. Clients have long term (3-5 year) maintenance contracts, giving a stream of future profits.
  • HDD industry: There is a small company which makes a large percentage (worldwide) of the HD actuator arms - forget its name (*). Alternatively, Seagate may be worth looking at. Always a large risk of obsolescence when buying tech: this is a bet that HDDs will still be around to hold information in the cloud.
  • 2nd Chance Properties (*): Plans to change to the property business, by buying commercial property in a downturn. Interesting idea, though I have not looked at the company yet.


  • China Mingzong. Currently selling at 5X earnings, (as far as I can make out) in a non-cyclical industry. They don't have pricing power, but their industry should grow. Largest competitor may be a fraud, no guarantees about this one either. May buy a little with money I can afford to lose in the hope it goes up 5-10X in the long term.
  • AirAsia: Don't know where to classify this one, they are in a new fact they are the industry - no one seems to be able to replicate them profitably after years of trying. But they have fuckloads of debt and unimaginable future capital commitments.
Lets see if 2012 brings a chance to buy....

1 comment:


Great take on some interesting stocks.