Sunday, October 2, 2011

ECRI calls Recession

New recession call from ECRI. At a minimum, a shallow one, but if there are unexpected shocks, it would be deeper.

Continuing the chronological listing of ECRI's calls:
  • 31 Aug 11: Summary of Member Report Issued Aug 19, 2011
    Job Market to Remain Weak. Still cant tell if slower growth or recession. Has been persistent, not pronounced or pervasive. No upturn in sight yet.
  • 17 Sep 11: Radio interview: Skating on this ice.
    Fwd looking indicators show continued slowing. Risk of a new recession is "quite high", don't yet know. Should know by end Nov.
  • 30 Sep 11: US Recession (Bloomberg)
    Recession "now inescapable". Over a dozen 12 US leading indexes (different aspects in the US economy), all showing contagion. Vicious cycle to start. Will continue to be pronounced, pervasive and persistient. "If Europe cleans its act up and everything is good, there's still going to be a recession." If there is an unpredictable event (eg: Lehman imn 08) it will be worse. How long? Don't know yet. Right now, minimally, its a shallow recession. Recessions kill inflation.
Good. Soon I'll get a change to use the money I've been hoarding.