Year started with a distribution day (Jan 5th), but I would ignore that because vol is being compared to the quiet Christmas trading period. Also ignore the slight distribution on Jan 8th as due to Walmart. IBD signalled end to rally on the 12th, mostly due to the action of leading stocksas show on chart. But after this, the last two days have seen bullish action, though, by both indexes and leading stocks.
No clear trend. Dow is bouncing between 8000 and 9000, around the 50 SMA.
The bear market rally may or may not continue. From 20th Nov to 6th Jan the Dow is up 19.6%. Previous US bear market rallies in 1929-1933 generally lasted 1 or 2 month for 20-30% gain. The market was so oversold in Nov, that we could get a bigger one (5 months --> 48% gain, that one was also over Christmas).
Dunno what will happen, moved to 80% cash.
Previous bear markets in 1929 to 1933:
11/13/1929 - 04/17/1930, 198.69 -> 294.07, 48% (5 months and 48%. Abnormally large).
12/29/1930 - 02/24/1931, 160.16 -> 194.36, 21%
06/02/1931 - 07/03/1931, 121.17 -> 155.26, 28%
10/05/1931 - 11/09/1931, 86.48 -> 116.79, 35%
01/05/1932 - 03/08/1932, 71.24 -> 88.78, 25%
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