Sold SCCO

Long term I am no longer bullish on copper:

• China housing bust
• Solar panes and wind farms are now uneconomic.  Switch to natty and nuclear.
• Hybrid vehicles are growing faster than EVs.  

Sold my 2% Southern Copper corporation this week, as Hedgeye's copper signal went bearish.  Unfortunately it went bullish a few days after.  Short term, shit happens.  Longer term, I'm not interested in a company trading at a 20+ PE (with copper at $4+).

Am now 2.5% cash.  Expecting a dip in the market in Feb/March, looking for things to buy:

• Platinum: Its trading below its cost of production, like Uranium was years ago.  But not low enough.  Uranium was trading at 1/3rd of its marginal production cost in the early 2020's.  Platinum is around 30-40% below the South African producers' AISC (est. USD 1200 to 1300).
• EMs (ex China).  I've got some Latam stocks, now looking at SEA.  eg: Pakuwon Jati.  Indonesia and the Philippines are cheap, and Malaysia has high projected GDP growth in the next few quarters.  But there's no rush.  Unlike Latam (upcoming 2025/26 elections), SEA does not have a catalyst.  EMs have underperformed for years, and we are still in the USD-up-EMs-down phase of the Trump rally.

Small update: Bought Latam stocks and Sandstorm

Bought 3 stocks in a Latam country, 1% each:

• Single digit PEs.  Where the PE can be counted on one hand.  Double digit dividends.
• May go up 2-3X when the political situation normalises, elections in 1 or 2 years.
• Small chance that the political situation goes to shit and they go to zero.

I want to increase holdings in EMs (ex China).  I think we get a falling USD over the long term, and go up after years of underperformance.  But no rush....its years of underperformance, so could easily go on another year.

A sudden fall in USD (like 10% from a "Mar-Largo accord") is not something I'm well positioned for.   Nearly 40% of my portfolio is domestic US companies.  The US could alternatively unilaterally devalue its currency (printing money and buying bonds) over the next year.

Bought another 1% of Sandstorm Gold.  A company that has future streams of gold and current debt is another way to play a falling USD.

Quick Update, Some Links/News

Quick Update: Market Madness

The US indexes were mostly rangebound in the past month after Trump euphoria faded, while value stocks had their longest losing streak.  My portfolio steadily lost ground.  Then Wednesday had a shock 3% fall on rates disappointment:

I think its a one off drop.  The VIX is back in the teens, and international markets didn't sell off. 

During the panic, I sold off:

• XOM before the big fall.  It should be working but wasn't.
• And Gold (GLD) after it.  Expecting higher growth in the future, gold fares badly.

Last night, replaced them with Argentina (ARGT), XLF and some crypto.   These are trades - they may get held a long time, but no convictions.

The blue items are trades, the black ones investments.  My portfolio is down about 8% from its all time highs after Trump.

Some Ideas:

For future investigation:

• Europe is cheap and hated.  Poland may recover if we get a Ukraine ceasefire.  I've not looked at any stocks there.  Maybe GPW.
• South America, as they follow Milei's path.  Probably ETFs, these markets are inaccessible to retail.
• Expect Trump to pressure countries with large bilateral trade surpluses ro revalue their currencies.  Especially those that rely on the US for defence.  Japanese consumer stocks ($).

Some Links/News:

• Several days lack-of-wind in Germany leads to sky-high power prices in Sweden.  Swedish minister says they are in a "shit situation" because Germany does not have reliable baseload energy.

• (Nov 29th) Saudi Arabia calls off major Defence Treaty with US, and can no longer normalise  Israel relations.  Makes it harder for Trump to bargain with them for lower oil prices.

• Goehring & Rozencwajg's 3Q Commentary mentions that shale gas production peaked in November 2023, "and has since slipped by 1%, or 1 billion cubic feet per day".   Need to watch this, its a long term threat to my gas pipeline stocks.

Updates:

• 24th Dec: Sold ETH, 1% profit.  Still a bit uncomfortable with crypto.
• 2nd Jan: Sold Bitcoin, negligible loss.
• 3rd Jan:  Sold XLF, 0.5% loss.  Sold the Argentina company, 3% profit.  The market is probably bullish, but its gone up ver the past few days, but today weaker than ARGT, so sell it.
• 15th Jan.  Sold ARGT, 5% profit.  Now got around 4.5% cash.

Sold my Bitcoin

I've been trading a small 1-2% bitcoin position, buying low and selling high.  I'm trying my hand at active trading.  By buying and selling based on Hedgeye's risk ranges I've made more and lowered my stress level.  I'm not a natural trader, so I'm quite happy with myself, even with only a few thousand dollars profit over two months.  If it was a lower volatility asset, or if it had just broken out of a multi year bear market, then I could buy and hold.  But for something with high volatility thats been going up so long that everybody is excited about it, active trading is safer.

Finally sold it tonight.  There's too many signs of exuberance:

• Youtuber beats the world record for the longest time sitting on the toilet.  He's sitting there till his shitcoin hits 50m.
• Meme coins like MOODENG coin.   At least she's cute.

• Hawk Tuah coin, rug pull.  She's cute too.  She can spit on my thang.

The crypto market might shoot higher for a few months, but this is fucking crazy.  I'm out.  We all know how this ends.

Bought an Argentina stock

Last night I bought an Argentina ADR.  Its a company thats part of an oligopoly in a cyclical industry.  Should do well as the economy recovers.

Reasons for buying:

• Hedgeye projects that Argentina's recession ended this quarter with two more quarters of increasing growth and decreasing inflation.
• Their past year GDP and inflation numbers are so bad that theirs plenty of room for improvement.  Going from triple digit inflation and 1 plus percent real growth, these numbers could improve for years.
• Argentina is rich in natural farming and energy resources, if they can just get their government policies right.  They need enough capitalism to encourage business, and enough protection for workers so income gap is kept down and they don't become socialists again.

Its a 1.5% position.  The reasons for the caution and small position size are:

• The stock has broken out, always overbought.  And it has bigger price moves than bitcoin.
• Company has high debt, normal for its industry.
• Inflation is expected to fall over the next 6 months: from triple digits to double digits!  This is unimaginable to me.  How the fuck to people live like that?  A time series measured in pesos is incomprensible.  I learned theres an IFRS standard for reporting in hyper-inflationary currencies.
• Argentina has failed for the last 100 years.  Betting that this time is different.
• No idea of politics in Argentina.

We'll see if Milei gets re-elected in Oct 2025.

This ideas is from John Polomny.

Sold Some Gold

Sold a little gold, around 4%.  It had run up for months before the election, but dropped afterwards, Now got an 6% position.

The reasons, from short term to long term:

• Hedgeye's trend is weakening, though still bullish.  And they are projecting a few months of increasing growth in the next six months, bad for gold.
• Gold ran up for months before the election.  Mostly no one noticed, but by the end mainstream media was reporting on it.
• I do not know if Trump wants a weaker dollar.  He needs it if manufacturing is to come back to America.  But he also says he wants the USD to be a reserve currency.  And growing oil production is positive for the USD.  Tariffs may also increase the value if the USD (lowering the currencies of the countries they are aimed at).  
• The new administration is looking to grow its way out of debt.  Rather than just inflate its way out.

My gut says we need a lower USD to fix the persistent trade deficit.  But I don't know.

I still think theres inflation.  Government debt is too big, and most of government spending is mandatory (required by law).  But we are looking at less inflation, more growth, with maybe a tiny bit of austerity.  The train wont stop, but it can slow down. Maybe 3% inflation, 3 percent real growth.

I also want to deleverage a bit, because we don't know what can happen.  They new administration may:

• Make a security deal with Saudi Arabia, for cheaper oil
• Get allies to pay for US troops, narrowing the budget deficit.  Or make them buy long term bonds to pay for it.
• Tie tariffs to foreign policy - you get to sell more into the US market if you support the US politically and militarily, and if you put tariffs against other countries that don't.
• Do a shock 10% devaluation of the USD.  Either unilaterally, or another plaza accord.

The rules have changed.  Someone may be about to kick over the chess board we've all been playing on since the 1940's.

Update 25-Now: I sold 6% my gold, 3 or 4% remaining

Quick Update

My portfolio was up a couple of percent for the Trump win.  Not bigly.  Gas pipelines made 5-year highs, but gold and energy were down.

Trades

Hedgeye's trend for Industrial metals have broke down: Platinum (last week), copper (last night), and silver (weak but still holding).  Sold the first two, reduced the third.  I don't know why - I expected industrial metals would react positively to a Trump win.  But they were trading positions so no need to think about it.

Still got a small 1/2 percent bitcoin position remaining after selling some last night (doh!).  Its broken out, bullish, but overbought.  My gut feeling is to wait for 100K then sell the news.

Investments

Still keeping my tin (MSC:KLSE), as its an investment position - too illiquid to trade in and out.  Think I need to wait for the semiconductor market to improve, half of tin is used for solder.  No sign of this now.

Sandstorm Gold was down 9% on disappointing earnings plus a falling gold price.  I bought another 2%.  This might be a risk, since Hedgeye trends recently broke down for some gold related sectors.  We *may* be entering a period of accelerating growth, which is bad for gold.  And gold's uptrend was getting long in the tooth.

Hartalega (Malaysian glove manufacturer) was also up after the US election, probably because of USD strength.  And tariffs.  I expect the USD to fall longer term, but its not happening now.

Palm oil up a lot since I bought, need to see if theres any supply response.  Hard to get data.  Maybe March next year.

I sold Woodside, small loss (including dividends).  US natural gas export capacity will no longer be hindered by "green policies".

Question's I'm Thinking

*If* we are entering a period of accelerating growth, do I sell my gold (miners/royalties)?  I'm still bullish gold long term.

And in that time, if industrial metals are not working (for whatever reason), what do I buy?  With rising growth, shit flies.  Do I want to trade shit?

US daylight savings makes it harder for me to trade.