US market: strong uptrend... but overbought

Nasdaq's follow thru day was on 1st Mar, strong uptrend since then:

US market yesterday reversed (upward) strongly (healthcare bill passed), and ignored bad news (USD up, Greece). OK so far... BUT the US market is looking overbought.

This uptrend has been lead by Nasdaq. In S'pore, however, the tech stocks (Venture, HIP, STATS) have been miserable.

Bought NOL

Friday 19th Mar 10. Bought 10 lots NOL @ 1.97.

It had rebounded off its resistance-turned-support line at around 1.93. I bought the day after. It went below that the next day, but seemed to recover today.

Resistance at $2.20.

The retest of the 1.93 line a few days ago is not significant enough to make it a 'previous low' when viewed on a longer timeframe... I am a little uncomfortable buying with such 'flimsy' support...a break here would not convince me the trend was going down...hence the trade is a little too 'short term' for my liking... to open to be whipsawed.

But there's not much to buy...

Bought ARA

Bought 6 lots @ $1.15, 9 lots @ 1.16.

Cut loss probably at $1.08.

Bought Ho Bee

Bought 11 lots Ho Bee yesterday (9th Mar 10) @ 1.84, as it had broken out of triangle.

It has since pulled back to the trendline, but on lower vol.

Cut loss would be at 1.63. Resistance at 1.82, 1.93 and 2.24.

Bought SC Global, CWT, CapMall Asia

Yesterday Wed 3rd Mar 10:

• Bought 20 lots CWT @ 91.5c. Cut loss at 87c (-5%)
  
• Bought 10 lots SG Global @ $1.82. Cut loss at 1.64 (-10%)
  

Today Thurs 4th Mar 10:

• Bought 8 lots CapMall Asia @ $2.28. Cut loss at 2.19 (-4%)

Aim was to buy stocks that are in an uptrend (or may be bottoming, for CapMallAsia), but are not to overbought, in case the market direction heads down again.

CapitaMall Asia

Don't have data for this so have to use the chart from SGX.

Price/vol action looks good, accumulation in green above, is it reversing after a long decline?

May be added to STI, expected to be confirmed Mar 11th, takes effect Mar 19th.

All time low is $2.19, giving a 7% cut loss @ $2.35.

Not sure if it is above the 25 and 50 EMAs.

ARA Asset Mgt: Pennant?

Matches textbook description of pennant:

• Strong uptrend before start of formation.
  
• high vol on flagpole
• So far, replacement vol has been low

To trade, would need to see:

• Continuing low vol on retracement.
• Retracement does not last longer that 3 weeks (some books say one month). Currently on day 6.
  
• High vol breakout.

Cut loss would be just below the valley.

Take note:

• 1 for 5 bonus issue proposed approx Apr, need a multiple of 5 lots if buying.

[Update 13th Mar 10]

No pennant. It did not break out with a big strong white candle... rather we got a couple of pussy candles. A breakout finally occurred yesterday:

The uptrend is still intact. If I buy now, cut loss would be at $1.08, 7% below last closing price of $1.16.

SC Global and SingLand

Sold Straits Asia

Straits Asia dropped below the 200EMA for on heavy vol, has rebounded with light vol.

Sold 9 lots today (1st Mar 10) @ 2.07.

Loss is $1400, includes brokerage. It may be easier to handle it as a percentage, which is 7.1% of the trade, or 0.6% of my capital.... acceptable.