- US negotiates with Houthis. Not a big deal, but theres scope for a quick deal. The Houthis said they do not want to attack US interests, and will not attack Israeli vessels, or any commercial vessels apart from Saudi's. Back-of-the-envelope its 3.5m bbl/day crude, with 1-1.5m of that re-routed through Suez - based on ships docking at Saudi terminals, not just Saudi flagged. If this is true, we could see a quick deal between the US and Houthis, leaving the Saudis out in the cold.
Options from here (not mutually exclusive):
- Saudis rally the Sunni world against the Houthis after an alleged(?) drone attack on Mecca.
- Saudi signs Abraham accords after their 'Mecca pact' proves useless.
- US peace deal with Houthis.
Bab Al-Mandab closure is now being priced in, but may not be as bad as expected. Geopol changes faster than macro.
- China passes mass mobilisation law. For Great Reunification. A day after they imposed travel bans on their citizens.
- Hedgeye talk with Mike Taylor: The AI bubble numbers are too big to make sense.
- Michael Every. Economically, the US must become more like China, while China is not becoming more like the US - in a zero sum world. Economic statecraft, US grand macro strategy and Brazil.
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