Still a bull market

Not much change.  Sold some losers, ride the winners:

• Sold some things that didn't work out.  High beta tech, and EMs.
• Replaced them with things that are working: gold, copper, precious/industrial metals & healthcare.
• No changes to my fundamental picks.  The Japanese SAAS stocks, NICE Information Services and the LATAM banks have been rising nicely.

Still think its a bull market.  I am 100% invested so cannot take advantage of Friday night's drop.

My portfolio is up nicely, nearly 4% in the past month.  Lets see how long it goes on for.

Finished buying the dip

Finished buying the dip in the last 2 nights.

Last night I was really lucky to buy 3% gold stocks before market open, just before Bessent's news that he would buy 30 year bonds.  I bought because it was in the middle of Hedgeye's risk range- which is about the best opportunity you can get in a strong trend, the gold price was inching up, and FOMO:

Its overbought now, after the good news.  I should probably sell some, but its been so hard building a position that I wont.

Now 100% invested.  No cash.  No shorts.

I'm now a pig.  This bull market could last 1 or 2 quarters.  Lets see how it goes.

Bought the dip

Bought a little last night (too early), and a lot tonight:

• Big tech, Gold, commodities, high-beta tech, software, market breadth broadening.
• Sold a little of my healthcare stock.  It seems to go up when everything else goers down.

Am now 6-7% cash.

See if I get a chance to buy more tomorrow.

Still buying. Market overbought now.

I've been buying last week:

• Finally got a chance to buy some gold on Thursday night
• Bought some more ETFs expecting market breadth to expand
• Covered high-beta tech shorts.

The market is overbought right now, so used the chance to sell some trades that weren't working last night.  Try buying different things when the market corrects.  Theres a lot I could buy: more market breadth, commodities, software, high beta tech or EMs.  And my favourite: Gold.  Wait for dips to buy.  Probably wait 2-5 trading days.

Some of my fundamental picks shot up last week: the Japanese stocks and a South American bank.  Up 10-20%.

I remind myself not to get carried away with buying.  Bull market probably lasts 1-2 quarters.  Everything I buy now is a trade.

Its a Bull market!

Now betting on a bull market, I am buying whatever dips or is flat:

Gold looks like its bottomed.  After a 6 month correction.  I want to buy more miners or royalties but haven't had the chance.  The risks are that inflation expectations may rise next months (ie: less chance or rates dropping).  And gold now trades as a risk-on asset so is affected by the war.

Don't get carried away, the bull probably ends within 6 months.  And $100 oil could end everything sooner.

Quick Update

Positions still unchanged, except for "Shorts" and "Trades":

Been a good month:

• My two Japan SAAS stocks are up 30-50% since mid June.
• My LATAM stocks are up in the past 2 months

• Gas pipelines flat
• And my short term trades are working.  Made money shorting EWY and other tech stuff, covered most of it on the way down.  Cumulating in Situational Awareness being taken out by Citadel.

• Also made money buying interest rate sensitive plays, trading in and out.  

So far we've see a bifurcated market, AI and high-beta tech down, (non-AI) software and low-beta up.  The blast wind from the blowup.  Does it continue?  Might depend on if Citadel is unloading their new bargain basement AI stonks.

Once the bodies are carted out, we should go back to our regular programming.  Either:

• A bull market from a few months of rising US growth.
• Or a downward chop from the war.

I don't know what happens.  Just trade whats working till it doesn't.  And remember that cash is a position.