Quick Update

Last night (Wed night) was the first day of a correction:

• Bought some space related ETFs on market open.  They are correcting - could be because of the New Glen explosion, could be a sell-the-news event for SpaceX IPO (in which case I'll lose money).  But its a bull market, buy stuff thats going up till it stops.
• Also bought some other low quality techy/AI adjacent stuff.  Shit flies in a Quad 2 bull market.
• Bought a little IWM.
• MSTR is dropping like a rock, regardless of wether the market is up or down.  2 days ago they sold bitcoin to pay preferred stock dividends.  I have a good position.  Its falling so fast you can't even short it anymore (SEC uptick rule).  Good chance that bitcoin only recovers after Saylor is carried out in a body bag.
• Sold Google on a small bounce at open.  Small loss.  Its oversold, but Hedgeye risk range has 5 consecutive lower highs.  I don't know why its selling off on news of the Berkshire Hathaway's stake...stock down on good news --> get out.

My IWM and space-crap buying was a bit early, its down this morning.  I'm at 8-9% cash.  Want to buy base metals (incl. copper miners) and small caps, probably in the next 1-2 nights.  Enjoy the bull while it lasts.   "As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance."

Bought Nice Information Services (030190 KS)

Bought a 5% position in Bought Nice Information Services (030190 KS), a credit bureau in Korea.  See the Asian Century Stocks writeup (paid).  Its sells mostly consumer credit scores, and is part of an oligopoly, with past 6% CAGR, trading at single digit PE.  It pays a 4% dividend, or half its profits.  The risks are: Korea is already heavily indebted, the corporate structure, and the stock is illiquid (buying 50 shares can move the price 1%).

Sold Nam Cheong

A Malysian OSV provider that went bankrupt 3 times.  I bought some in July 2024 and again in July 2025.

Name Cheong is a cyclical, not a long term compounder.  It has no moat.  

Trying to estimate their long term operating profit:

I get RM 30c per year, at the current utilisation rate is 58%. 

Increase utilisation to 70% and I get 50-55c per year.  At a maximum possible 85%, I get 80c.

The above does not take into account increased rates, which can push it up more.

The company should do well as the OSV cycle keeps improving.  We may be halfway through - we are nowhere near a the top of a bubble like 2008.  Although the easy money has been made, there's still some meat on the bone.  Main reason for selling is to buy something else.

Its up 3 times since I bought from my average price.  Been a good ride.

Quick Update

Think a correction may have started Friday night.  In a bull market, it probably only lasts 2-3 days.  I'm at 15% net cash now, look to buy Monday and Tues.   15% cash is too much in a bull market.

• Sold some Mag7 as they went up last night.  Before dropping into last night's close.
• Bought a few more "high beta tech" ETFs as they corrected Friday midnight.  Junky stuff really, but they can fly in a high growth and/or inflation environment.  
• Memory would be included in "high beta tech" above.  Already got a full position.
• Wanted to sell oil (Var Energi) but woke up 10 mins after the Oslo stock exchange closed.
• MSTR rose quite a bit Fri, now got a full short position.
• Long term bonds are overbought, re-shorted TLT.  They should bounce (down) now, but keep this on a short leash see if/when high rate expectations begin to falter. 
• Colombia has elections (tonight) Sunday: binary event, right or left.  One of my LATAM positions (2%) is a bet on this: it either flies or drops like a rock.

I would like to separate my trading and non-trading portfolios to measure performance separately, but in Interactive Brokers it affects the margin limits.  And I may want margin in years to come.

Separately I have:

• Created a LLM wiki knowledge base to hold topics from investment related articles.  Mostly fundamental related stuff.  Its to keep track of articles/topics over the years.  May write about it after I've used it a few months.  AI makes it possible to specify things in English that could not be done before.
• Been plotting Hedgeye's daily risk ranges onto charts, to be able to see trends and changes in trends easier.  Claude code makes scripting 10X faster.

Quick Update

 Short term trades:

• Portfolio up bigly on Tuesday, down medium last night.
• Some of my shorts did not work out, cut loss.
• Sold my crypto stonk at a small loss 2 nights ago.  Most of crypto is falling, BTC is dropping like a rock despite tech going up.  Last night shorted my favourite crypto PoS, MSTR.  Its falling so fast its hard to build a decent position. 
• Memory up 15% in Tues night.  I decided to keep it.  Its a bubble, but we don't know wether is 2001 or 1999.  The big question is when Korea/China increases capacity, or HBM demand from Mag7 fades.
• Small position in QTUM also up bigly.
• Added to some Mag7 positions, they are down over the past 2 days while everything else is up.
• Reshorting TLT.  Rising growth and inflation leads to higher rates.

Medium term:

• Looking for signs to buy gold, when rising rate expectations peak.  No sign of this yet.
• Cut my position in Var Energi from 4% to 2%, as WTI/Brent start to break Hedgeye's trend.  The market is pricing in an Iran resolution. 

Long term, conflicting views:

• US is in a growth phase now (mid-terms, tax stimulus, data centre buildout), but there's a chance it turns to stagflation in the next few months.
• Even if we get the growth, end 2026 is probably the peak.  2027 is a bear.

Quick Update

Sold some stocks on the rebound and entered some shorts:

Bitcoin failed, sold it at a small profit.  I should also reduce my crypto stonk.

I am still cautiously bullish.  Its a bull market.  Pricing in a peaceful resolution.  But also seeing stagflation coming up.  Its a battle between growth and stagflation.  Trade in and out a bit.

Quick Update

Tonight is probably the bottom of the dip.

These are my current positions before open.  I intend to cover a small amount of shorts, reducing them to core positions.  Also want to reduce some losing positions.  And buy more.  I may go to -ve 3 or 4% cash.

Biggest "Trade" positions are bitcoin, tech stuff (Quantum and memory), IWM, Industrials, copper, China.  Stuff that should go up with economic growth, inflation and bubbles.

I think the Iran war will resume sometime.  But today its a bull market, in a growing economy (even with rising inflation).  Today the market says BTFD.

Buying the Dip

I was buying small dips through last week, making money on the way up.  Friday's opex correction erased all those gains, I bought more.  A crypto stonk, copper, EMs.

I also bought some shorts, mostly other EMs.  And they were making money even before Friday's fall.

Now down to around 4% net cash.   Excluding another 4% short.

I'll keep buying the dip.  Could last till Wed (Nvdia's results).

Quick Update

Still uncertain about the market, but tech is powering ahead:

• Cut back my gold position, due to rising economic growth and rates.  This probably reverses in the next few months.  I am looking to buy it back again.
• Tried to add some growth.  Added small amounts of Q's and Korea (EWY) last night: only 0.5% each as they didn't dip enough.
• Still holding bitcoin at my max position of 5%.  Not trading in and out yet, as its going up so strongly.
• Missed the chance to add to copper a few days ago.

I'll look to buy more growth on dips.  As trades.  It could end in a month or two.

Reduced Exposure

Since the rally started a month ago, my performance has been bad.  Minus 1.5% vs plus 8% for SPY:

What happened?  Two things.

First, the stuff I am holding did not go up.

Energy Infrastructure and Var Energi.  Almost 30% of my holdings:

Precious metals (was around 15 to 18% of my portfolio).  Down in the second half of the month, as US economic growth re-asserts itself.  I got stopped out of silver and platinum last week.

A bunch of misc US ETFs.  Mostly flatlined since the 17th:

EMs.  Again flatlined since the 17th, except for Korea (semis):

Second, the market has been volatile, since I went bullish on the 17th.  A few days up, a few days down.  With a slight downward bias.  I hate choppy markets.

Macro doesn't work so well in this kind of environment.  It works well mapping the rates-of-change of the economic cycles.  eg: After N straight quarters of growth, comparisons are so hard you can predict the next few quarter's growth rates will be lower.  But it doesn't work so well in hot wars.  No way to model what Trump or the Mullahs are going to do.

Used yesterday's pop to:

• Cut back on the things not working.  Especially gold.  Ethereum.  
• Cut back some higher beta plays.  Mostly LATAM.
• Cut back some things shot up.  Other EMs and ETFs still working.  I may buy them back at a lower price if I get a chance.

I need to change my mindset.  I'm usually worried about missing out on the next big rally.  Need to remind myself that its OK to hold cash, and I can sit back wait for trades to come to me.  And also to take some profit if the market moves my way for a few days.

I'm not a fund manager trying to raise money.  I don't need to beat SPY all the time.  Can reduce my risk when I'm not comfortable.

I made a lot of money being piggy in the last 2 years.  Time to change, need to be more nimble in this kind of market.  Or maybe just less exposed.

Quick Update: bought the dip

Bought the dip on market open last night.

My cat woke me up at 3am, 1 hour before market close.  I saw stocks were down bigly and bought more.  Bitcoin, ethereum, EMs, silver, platinum.  All under "Trades".

Still managed to get a few more hours sleep before work.

Now I have:

Actually, the cash number looks a bit wrong.  Should be 2 or 3%.   AI.

I am still uneasy over the war.  With the USD, VIX and oil down, the market is pricing in near 100% chance of peace.  I think its too high.  

But I am still bullish, not fighting the market.  Maybe the market is seeing that blocked oil/gas/fertiliser is only a temporary issue - a year's inflation - and is looking past it.

----

Update: Tonight I bought some more EM.  Now ~1% cash.  No intention to go further ands buy on margin.  This rally could end in a few months.  Or a few days, if the war starts again.

Quick Update

 Slowing adding longs, as trades.  Everything's shot up, its hard to find anything correcting.

Added:

• More bitcoin, as it dipped yesterday.
• Some of the India company.  INDA corrected yesterday, this stock did not.  Only bought 1%.
• Platinum, as it corrected yesterday.

All under 'Trades'.  No conviction.

Now only 14% cash.  I keep looking for things to add on dips.  Copper may be next.

Notes on Mexico Stock Exchange

One of the few stock exchanges trading at a reasonable valuation, 12-15X earnings.  And it belongs to a country which benefits from de-globalisation, as Mexico takes on the low-end manufacturing role in USMCA.

Business and Revenue Breakdown

The Mexican exchange is primarily for trading debt.  The equity market is dead, with zero IPOs (both BMV and BIVA) from 2022 till today (excluding spin offs).  Companies would rather list in the US.  The revenue breakdown from debt and equity is not disclosed.

Summary of their segments:

BIVA

Competing exchange BIVA was launched in 2018.  BIVA handles stocks (incl. warrants), bonds and ETFs, but not derivatives.

Its not a competing exchange like the NASDAQ is to the NYSE.  BMV and BIVA operate under a "Multi-Exchange" model where all stocks are cross-listed and traded on both platforms simultaneously. They compete primarily on trading fees, technology, and service quality rather than exclusive company listings; for example, a stock listed on the BMV can be executed on BIVA and vice versa. Orders are routed by broker-dealers using Best Execution Rules mandated by the government, which require algorithms to scan both order books in real-time and route to the venue offering the best price, highest volume, or highest probability of execution at that millisecond. One trade may be split into parts, each handled by a different exchange.

This means that, while a company is listed on either BIVA or BMV, it can be traded on both exchanges.  Regardless of where it was traded, settlement and custody is performed by BMV (Indeval).

Average daily trading volume for BMV in 2025 was 17.2bn (p3).  For the entire Mexico market, it was 21.5bn (also p3).  So BMV had an 80% market share of transactions by volume.

Financials

Typical of an exchange, they have have 30+% operating margins, low D&A, and no debt.   They pay the majority of earnings as dividends.

Valuation

2025 EPS was 2.88.  At MXN 40, the trailing PE is 13.8.  The PEs for 2024, 2023, 2022 and 2021 would be 13.8, 15.2, 13.9 and 14.7 respectively.

Dividends for each year are payed out the following year.  It is usually confirmed in the AGM late April.  The payout ratio is usually 70-80%, but may be lower this year.  At a 60% payout ratio, the yield would be 4.3%.

Risks

• Market downturn, reduces trading volume.
• Theres a risk after June that USMCA will be torn up, due to Canada.  I believe the US will ultimately make accommodations for Mexico, as they are needed for low cost manufacturing.  But the share price may react.
• Fentanyl and cartels.  Mexico is corrupt and government figures may be involved with the cartels.  Trump could "raise this as an issue", in his own special style.  I believe that the US cannot send troops into Mexico, and they would either have to rely on the Mexican government, or negotiate directly with the cartels.  But if this issue becomes news meanwhile, expect Mexican stocks to be hit.

The upside is that long term, Mexico's economy grows as part of USMCA, and the companies issue more tradable debt.  Plus it would be a bonus if their moribund stock market wakes up, though I wouldn't count on it.

Paperwork

Previously I paid 30% WHT on dividends from Mexican stocks, even though the official rate is only 10%.  As a Singapore resident, I may need to apply for a COR from IRAS and check with Interactive Brokers.

Update 2026-06: Paid 10% WHT on dividends.  Previously I paid 30% for Fibrta Macquarie, so its probably different for REITs.

Conclusion

Last week I bought a 5% position.  I categorize it under "Long term Fundamental Investments".  Could hold it forever.  The "LATAM" category stocks are more medium-term bets, usually with a political catalyst.

New bull market

Its a new bull market, lets see how long it lasts.

I bought stocks on Tuesday and Thursday night: 

• Some LATAM picks
• Bought Mexico Stock Exchange as a long term fundamental play.  Will write about it tmr.
• Some trades, including bitcoin

Update 20-Apr: There's a mistake in the numbers, I missed some cash, should be ~20% cash, with the other entries reduced slightly.

Every time I bought, I thought the market was overbought.  Then it goes up some more.

My one-month performance has lagged SPY for the rebound, with my allocation to Gas Pipelines, oil and cash.

Waiting for a pullback to buy more.

Quick Update

Sold my Indian stock Thursday night due to Hedgeye trading signal.   It was overbought anyway.

The signal is quite good at at telling when to buy/sell.  If it flips, I can buy again.

Peace Deal

Was caught offside.  The market was overbought, and should have fallen on any news that fell short of a peace deal.  We got a peace deal.

I think there's an 80% chance it will stick:

• Trump doesn't want economic disruption to derail the mid-terms.
• The IRCG doesn't want to be overthrown after Iran's economy is bombed into oblivion.

The Israelis might de-rail it.  Or parts of the IRGC (compartmentalised from each other) may keep shooting.  The Gulf states might want to finish the IRGC, but have no militaries.

Changed my positions:

• Covered all my shorts.  Lost ~1.5% in a night from them.  Its probably the worst time to do it, but once I'm wrong I prefer to cut my positions and start with a clean slate.
• Covered my short term war trades (BNO, Corn).  Kept Var Energi as its a low cost producer.
• Loaded up on some more EMs.   LATAM stocks, the high-beta ones that I sold before.  An India stock, as India was badly affected by the war.
• Looked at Dubai, but not attractive.  I think Dubai recovers - from blown up high-rises to normalcy - but there will be a new geopolitical risk premium unless the IRGC is overthrown.  The Iran drone risk.   The stocks just weren't valued attractively enough.  eg: Dubai stock exchange at 20X recurring earnings.
• Delfi (Indonesian chocolate company) shot up 15% on no news, maybe because of the peace deal.

Looking for more things to buy that were affected by the war.  Maybe EMs, maybe copper.

Quick update

Added a few more shorts (2%), and sold a little gold (1%). 

I expect Trump escalates after market close tonight (8am tmr Asia time).

Got Shorter

Reached 45% short.

Around 4% of that is really low beta stuff, so its more like 41% short.

I'm comfortable with that as the market is now overbought.  Rallied for 3 days.

Reloaded shorts

I reloaded my shorts yesterday night, before midnight (noon in NYSE time):

I was looking to go a little shorter again tonight, dunno if I'll get the chance.  The market was overbought last night and did not react well to Trump's speech.  

Uncertain

Kept most shorts, trimmed a few.  Rebounds in bear markets can be vicious for shorts.  Market has the potential to rebound from its oversold position, with VIX at borderline 29.  But has not done so yet.  Still waiting to see when I should trim more or reload for another leg down.

Market seems to be ignoring whatever Trump says.  Before the close, he says "Iran really wants to stop the war", after the market close he'll "obliterate them".  My base case is that the threats (not the war) escalate next week as both sides negotiate.  But it can end tomorrow.  Or Iran (and the Gulf States) can be "obliterated" anytime.

Short term uncertain, medium term moderately bearish.

Still Short

Kept most my shorts as market is crashing.  VIX > 30.  I don't know what happens next or when the rebound is.

My portfolio was up tonight more than 1%, or more than I make in 2 months of my day job.

Time for the weekend.

Gone shorter

Night 3 of the rebound, gotten shorter at the start of the session.  Also bought 1% oil (BNO) as a trade - which is the same as shorting the stock market.

Choppy market with a bearish bias.  This is about as short as I'll get.  Look to cover some on the next drop, probably in 1-4 trading days.  The war can end any day, however unlikely.  Or it can get worse.  Follow the market and don't listen to your beliefs.

Cutting exposure and Shorting again

Market was oversold, Trump made an announcement just before market open to make it pop:

Its a kangaroo market with a bearish bias, use the chance to sell:

• Sold some LATAM stocks.  High beta.  Fundamentally, I want to buy them back again when the war is over.
• Sold SOBO, too small a position to track (spin off)
• Sold the gold which I foolishly bought Friday.  I like my gold position, but it was too big.
• Wanted to sell Malaysia Smelting Corp (tin - industrial metal), but market closed today.
• Added shorts, as they has bounced back to the middle or top 1/3rd of Hedge risk range.

I may be a bit early shorting, by a few hours or a few days.  Would prefer to monitor first, but I need to sleep at night. I can still go shorter.

I think theres a 90% chance the war continues this week.  The chance to strangle the Iranian Regime is too good to pass up.  And Israel & the Gulf States will be in a bad situation if the job isn't completed.  Could be weeks, could be months.  The only real constraint is that it has to end before the mid-terms, probably August.  In this market, thats several lifetimes away.

Small chance the war is over tomorrow.  So keep nimble.  Currently a Kangaroo market, with a good chance of going into a correction.

Love Hurts

My portfolio is down 4% in a month.  It hurts:

Its a 7% drawdown from its all time high at the end of Jan.  Gold fell 16% in the same period.  Even in a gold bull market, it can historically be expected to correct 20-35%, so I expect more pain to come. 

I'm up 10% YTD while gold is up 4%.  So I'm "outperforming": rode the upside, missed most of the downside.

The market is choppy: 3-5 days up, then 3-5 days down.   I hate it, but we trade the market we have not the market we want:

• Started covering some shorts early tonight,
• Sold platinum and silver in the last two days, trailing stop-loss.
• Bought a little more gold (RGLD), bad timing.
• Sold my oil trading positions (XOP and BNO).  Still have Var Energi as a longer term holding. 

I don't know if we get a real correction: VIX > 30 with markets crashing from oversold levels and correlations going to one.  I think we should, as the market prices in inflation and a real (not nominal) recession.  But no sign of it yet.  So I'll probably cover more shorts in the next few days.  The war can last for months or could be over tomorrow.

This is the first time I've been able to short the market successfully over a few months.  And the first time being able to trade the chop.  At least reducing the effect of falling gold on my portfolio.  I should be happy about that.

When would I sell Var Energi?  Even through its a long term fundamental play, oil is cyclical.  Prices can't stay triple digits forever else they'll reduce demand with a recession.  Back-of-the-envelope, from 2025 numbers:

• 5.2bn revenue from crude @ 68.3 USD/bbl.  At 120 Brent it would be 9.1bn, or an extra 3.9bn  At 150 Brent it would be 11.4bn, or an extra 6.2bn.
• 2.4bn revenue from gas @ USD 74.4/boe.  Around 15% of their gas price was fixed in Q4, but I'll ignore this cuz its usually only one or 2 years out.  TTF now is EUR 59/Mwh, or roughly USD 106 per boe.  Selling gas at USD 106 would give 3.4bn revenue, which is an extra 1bn.
• Apply Norway's 78% O&G tax to this: At 120 Brent & 59 TTF, its an extra 1.07bn profit.  Or profit goes up 2.26 times.  At 150 Brent & 59 TTF, its an extra 1.58bn profit.  Or profit up 2.8 times.
• At 10 times earnings, that would be a stock price of USD 7 (NOK 67) for Brent 120 and TTF 59.   Or USD 8.7 (NOK 83) for Brent 150 and TTF 59.

The stock doesn't have to get there or could go further, but these would be unsustainably high stock prices.

Fundamentally, its not yet time to begin value investing.  Some stocks in the UAE ETF might be value buys later, but need to get cheaper.  Stocks in general are still too expensive, there's nothing yet where I'd stick my hand out to catch a falling knife.  Need to see real fear of a recession.  And if this war continues long enough we'll get it.

Gone short again

 Added to my shorts last night and tonight, and cut a few longs.  Almost doubled the shorts:

I expect this bear market bounce to end by next week or Friday.  Possibly tonight if Powell talks tough on rates.  I can still go a bit shorter.

Still moderately bearish due to rising inflation from oil.  No quick off-ramps for Hormuz yet.

Quick Update

Covered some shorts early this morning:

Its a short term move.  Expect to put them back again, with more, in the next few trading days.

Its been a tough week.  Choppy market with the change in daylight savings time mean I have to wake up at 3+ to place trades.  Its been stressful, with the market changing so frequently.  Twice I got caught where I made some moves, the market moved against them the next night, then moved back (and more), validating those moves.

Combined with my day job, barely pulling through.  Need to take this weekend to rest and exercise.

Performance last week is has been drip-drip-dripping down, but still OK YTD at 14%.  It still mostly follows gold (miners?):

I try to remind myself that in this business, a 60% hit rate is good.

I give an 80% chance the war continues next week, with the market beginning to price in sustained inflation and supply disruptions for basic materials.  Anything can happen.  Trump can TACO anytime.  The war can grind on for months.  Or the Iranian regime can be overthrown, bringing a new Golden Age of peace to the Middle East.

There will be opportunities at the end of this, I don't know when.  The war has to be over by the mid-terms.

Meanwhile: reduce high beta exposure, trade short positions, and try not to die.

Grown shorter

I am now 80% invested and 17% short:

Small changes:

• Covered some crypto shorts, bitcoin may be showing strength.
• Sold Copper miners
• Bought more puts and entered more short positions last night.
  
• Bought oil a few days ago, just sold some.

Short term - if the market drops and becomes oversold then I'll cover some shorts.  The war might be over next week...unlikely but anything can happen.

I hate choppy markets, but we trade the market we have, not the one we want.

If this war drags on for another month ands markets start to price it in (we ain't seen nuthin yet), is there anything I'd want to buy?

Cut more exposure

Cut more exposure this afternoon and tonight.  I think the war leads to a slowdown, as oil & food stay high for a few months:

• Reduced my Tin miner (industrial metal)
• Reduced some of my LATAM stocks (they are high beta, and move with the nasdaq).
• Reduced Equinox Mining.  Open pit miner with high diesel costs.  Kept ~ 1/3rd of my original position.  Keep the gold royalty companies.
• Kept silver.
• Sold my trades (XLI and EWW).  Keep EIS for now.
• Added a few puts (0.5% in total).

I am now around 22% in cash (excluding shorts).

A crashing market doesn't give you a nice bounce to sell your holdings and load up on shorts.

Its a pit of a panic, but the question is, is it at the start of the correction or the end of it?

Reducing Exposure

Reduced exposure last week, both on the long and short side.  Not as part of a strategy, just a bunch of individual trades:

• Reduced my crypto shorts.  Less bearish on this due to price action.
• Reduced one of my LATAM banks.  Its holding up OK from rising oil, but this decreases the chance of a political change in the next election, needed to really boost the price.
• Cut a lot of country specific trades, as they broke trend.  They were mostly profitable, but it doesn't matter.
• Cut my oil trades as they shot upwards.  Oil now to volatile to trade.  Still holding my fundamental oil pick (Var Energi).

Now I am almost 15% cash:

I think the market may be beginning to price in a slowdown/recession from the war.  The Straits of Hormuz is (fully or partially) blocked, oil cannot flow out, fertiliser and chemicals can't flow in.  This is existential for both Trump and the Iranian regime, and I see no off-ramp.  The war will escalate from here, and it could be a few months.  Enough to spike energy prices now and food prices later.  After the market does price all this in, it might be time to turn bullish.  A revolution in Iran would lead to a golden age of peace for the Middle East.  I don't know what will happen.

Short term, I want to:

• Sell my Trades if they break down (failure) or if they spike up (success).  XLI and EWW are looking weak, I've already reduced the former.
• Maybe reduce my LATAM companies, as they are high beta and will not do well in a correction.
• Sell Var Energi if oil goes unsustainably high ($100 to %150).
• And I would sell a bit more Silver if it goes above $100.

Long term, everything depends on wether the Iranian govt collapses (probably) and if there is a stable, interim replacement (maybe).  Iran is a black box now with no internet, so we have no idea.

Less Bullish. Sector Rotation.

I've been balls-to-the-wall bullish since April 2025.  Averaging 120 to 130% invested.  Now I've cut my exposure and added some shorts.  Now I'm 98% (gross) invested, plus 14% short.

Sold or reduced:

• Copper, palladium following Hedgeye Trade and Trend
• A Latam bank
• Shorted tech and crypto, again following Hedgeye Trade and Trend
• Sold 1/4 of my Malaysia Smelting Corp shares.  Tin made all time highs in Jan, with MSC up around 40% from where I bought it.  I think tin continues up this year, but probably falls next year with slowing economic growth.  So I still have a while to sell, but sell a little now in case I am wrong.
• Sold Hartalega (Malaysian rubber glove company) at a 66% loss.  I'm not sure if I timed the cycle wrongly, or there is something wrong with the company, or China is destroying the glove market.  There was no clear signal to say that I was wrong and to cut loss, just a slow drip, drip, drip of bad news.

Still golding a large chunk of gold and precious metals.  Gut feeling that we are not at the end of the gold cycle, but no numbers to back it up.

The US market is rotating away from tech and into Industrials and some cyclicals.

I am still bullish for 2026, but think 2027 has slower growth.  The bear may start end of this year.

My positions.  Short term trades are purple.  Cyclical commodities to sell as they go higher are Green:

The portfolio is doing OK, beating SPY but tracking gold.  With all the volatility that entails:

Another loss; Sector rotation; becoming less bullish

Another big loss last night, around 50K.

Caused by gold dumping for a 3rd time.

I still think gold is in a correction in a bull market.  Gold is making higher lows, while gold vol is dropping:

Still a bull market till proven otherwise.

The loss isn't really that big actually, at 2.6%.  I'm up 12% YTD.  The only way to handle volatility is to get used to it.  There is no course, training or job that can teach you this. When you ride the bubble up, you get smacked with vicious corrections along the way.  

This time tech and crypto sold off along with gold.  The market is rotating.  Tech (mag7, new AI and old SAAS companies) are out of favour.   Industrials, some cyclicals, and energy are in favour.  I have some short crypto positions, and added some short tech positions on the open last night.  Quite pleased with myself.

Since June last year I've been wildly bullish.  Was often 130% invested.  Now I'm down to 108% (gross) long and 10% short.  Want to continue in this direction.  With so many sectors selling off on the same day - and these are usually unrelated sectors like tech & gold - we may get a correction.  Where VIX goes over the 30s and correlations go to one.

2nd Biggest Daily Loss; Buying Japan

 Last Night:

Losses from gold (39K), Silver (12K), Cooper (9K), Platinum & Palladium (7K),.

What happened?

• Silver got hammered by some guy in China building a massive short position.  If his short position is not hedged, he'll have to cover in a few weeks.
• Gold fell in sympathy
• Crypto and Tech fell.  For tech, both Mag 7 (cause they are spending too much on AI), and traditional SAAS companies (cause they're going to get disrupted by AI).

I don't know if all these falls are the start of a new selldown, as volatility begets volatility, and correlations go to one.  I'm posting this to remind myself what 30-40 one-month forward IV feels like.  Really hope my next blog post has a different title.

My best guess is that gold will recover in a few months.  GVZ has peaked and is now falling, but needs to hit the low 20s:

Retail interest is still strong.  For now, I'll hold it and wait for the bull to continue.

Silver I think will also bounce, but is still too volatile.  For now, I'll hold it and look to sell above $100.

I don't know if tech and crypto will recover.  I'd like to put some tech shorts on during a bounce.  And reload my crypto shorts (MSTR and BMNR).

In the meltdown this morning, I bought 2 Japanese companies (paid link).  They are a growing SAAS duopoly, with a 20% market share together and 20-30% growth rates, and EV/Sales in the low single digits.

This is a fundamental bet, not macro.  Betting they won;t be disrupted by AI, and they can keep growing as the majority of additional revenue adds to their profits.

The meltdown can always continue next week.

Biggest loss in a day

Down over 100K last night.  Its the largest dollar (not percentage) loss I've ever had.

Mostly from metals: 34K from gold, 22K from silver, 15K from Platinum/Palladium, 8K from copper.

Silver down 28% looks like forced liquidation due to margin changes.

Part of this game is learning to deal with the volatility.

I'm still up over 200K this month.

Short term, I think theres a 40% chance that the metals and stock markets go down on Monday (more margin calls), and a 60% chance they bounce.  VIX is still below 20.

Long term, I am still bullish for 2027:

• Will hold my gold, as I'm expecting the bull market to continue.  Maybe after a few months of consolidation.  GVZ dropped a little yesterday but is still in the 40s, it needs to go into the 20s.
• Still buying copper.
• Look to sell my silver in the $100-$200 range.

Started to sell some gold

Gold is up 10% in the past week and 33% in the past month.

Crazy, but not a record.  I'm selling 1/3rd of Equinox.  Its the highest beta gold stock I own, and some of its upside has been removed by recent divestments.

Honestly, I have no idea when to sell.  Today could be gold's top, or it can go to 6000, 7000, or 10000.

There is no quantitive way to measure that gold is "too expensive" or "over owned".

Gold has no fundamentals. There is no "high price" where demand gets substituted or destroyed.

It is going up despite low inflation.

It has gone parabolic, and can go more parabolic. In the last month of the 70-80's bull market, it rose 66% in a month.

COT data tells you that its over owned, and has been over owned forever. GVZ has surpassing its previous peak before the correction in Oct - a mere 10% two-month correction. Even if you sold beforehand, you probably didn't get back in.

‌What can make it keep going up?

• Increased liquidity - especially China and Japan. People buy gold when their currencies are shit.
• CBs holding currencies down to offset their trade surplus wit the US by buying a neutral reserve currency instead of USTs.
• War or threat of war.

What can make it go down?

• Japan stops spraying liquidity (think its from BOJ issuing shorter term bonds)
• USD drops enough so no more trade defecit. Asian CBs no longer need to intervene in their currency markets.
• US successfully delevers, so USTs look more attractive.
• World peace. Old-Man-Xi dies (will happen) and his successor says he won't invade Taiwan (dunno). Iran regime overthrown (likely). Putin leave Ukraine (no sign yet).

Best I can do is look for signs of technical weakness or over-exuberance.  Like:

• Gold bugs telling people to "Have Fun Staying Poor".
• Gold doesn't rise on good news (good news for gold, ie: bad news).
• The price rise gets stupidly parabolic (like in the 70s). Or GVZ makes all time highs.

‌My gut feeling is that we still have some way to go. This is not yet like Crypto in 2021. But in a bull market, your gut feelings are probably wrong.

‌At some point, I have to say that "this is getting ridiculous", slowly sell my gold holdings, and maybe keep a small position just to trade. The trouble is, there are no numbers to tell you where that point is.

Start Selling My Silver

I bought Silver (SLV) eight months ago as a trade from Hedgeye.  Its up 3 times since then.  It was 2% of my portfolio, now its 5%.

When something goes parabolic theres no way to know when it ends.  You'll always miss the top.  Even a local top.  Hedgeye risk manages by frequent trading, but I don't like trading so I need another way.  Don't want to overstay my welcome and become like the sad crypto bros of 2025.

Fundamentally, for commodities, high prices cure high prices.  Demand destruction for silver in solar panels begins around  $100 to $135.  But supply incentives are harder to guess, as silver is a by-product of other metal mining:

Gold (10-15% of silver supply) has hit its incentive price.  Zinc (30-40%) is hitting it now.  Copper is nowhere near.  And of course silver mines (25-28% of silver supply) are incentivised.  So we have 65-83% of silver supply being incentivised.  The supply is not immediate - probably takes 9-15 years for a new mine to open.  But existing mines can increase output.

At $109 silver (tonight), we are at-or-near prices where demand replacement occurs, and at current silver/gold/zinc prices the majority of the worlds silver production is incentivised to produce more.   Neither will happen overnight, but it will happen.  I'm comfortable slowly trimming my silver position.  Sold a quarter of my holdings (pre-market), and will sell more if if rises.  It can still keep going higher.

Trader Ferg wrote a excellent piece about handling parabolic price rises.  Don't get too greedy.  Inner peace.

When would I sell my gold companies?  I don't know.  Gold is a currency, not a commodity, so has no fundamental price targets.