Thursday, November 26, 2009
The divergence since Aug is too clear. How long can this continue? Either the STI must go down, or the number of stocks making highs must go up.
I did not find this indicator useful in predicting past market tops. So it is only to show what is happening now.
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Monday, November 23, 2009
After 5 months of flatlining, breaks out on high vol.
Sppt @ 2.85, next resistance at 3.25.
Still a non trending market until proven otherwise, makes me hesitant to buy on breakout.
Perfect buy point would have been several days ago after it pulled back to the support.
Friday, November 20, 2009
Thursday, November 19, 2009
- Clearly broken out on high vol, with low vol retracement.
- Daily price/vol action shows accumulation since July.
- Buy on breakout risky in non-trending mkt. Next sppt after $3.00 is hard to determine. At what point would I cut loss?
US mkt currently down nearly 2% tonight, see how it goes and how this S'pore mkt reacts tmr. Will KepLand hold at $3.00?
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
- 10 lots Rotary Engineering @ 1.07
- 2 lots Bukit Sembawang @ 4.88
Both showing MACD-divergence, may have broken out of trendline. I await: HH on high vol.
My scanning criteria. I want:
- tocks that have not fallen much in the past 2 month.
- Volume should be high on up-days and lower on down days. Rotary shows this, BS a little. In the current market, there are a lot of stocks showing distribution (eg: SGX, Guocoland).
- MACD or MACD-H divergence with price.
I took positions abt half my normal size, because still not sure of overall market direction:
- US indexes making new highs, but no solid volume confirmation, and depth had not confirmed the uptrend (12th Nov) either.
- Singapore market seems trendless.
- But the individual charts good with well defined cut loss points... must remind myself that by the time everything is perfect, the opportunity will be gone.
With hindsight, bought at intraday high as they went down today :( But at least today's down was light volume.
Monday, November 2, 2009
Today (2nd Nov 09):
- 10 lots Midas @81.5c
- 20 lots Boustead @ 73.5c
- 2 lots Kep Corp @ $8.07
- 12 lots RMG @ $1.33
Singapore market (not juat STI) is holding up remarkably well.
Update tomorrow (3rd Nov 09):
- Sold 26 lots Cambridge @ 44.5c
Calculated a nett 28K gain (approx 28%) over 2.5 years (July 08 to now)... this includes a terrible bear market and probably the fastest recovery we'll see in our lives. Includes dividends, and estimates brokerage.
Now keep a watchlist of counters showing strength - this correction may end in a week or two.
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Should have sold after the weak vol rebound on Thurs, but too busy/tired at work. Sell tomorrow, even though SGX will be hammered. Holding will just compound the mistake.
I still think this is a correction in a liquitidy-driven uptrend, which may end next year. Keep reminding myself: I do not know for sure.. do not know how far the market will fall until after it happens.
From memory (no records) most corrections last for 2 weeks. Correction is now one week old and 5% down. So I should be still look for opportunities - monitor stocks showing strength and see.
Just a note that IBD's distribiution day count method was a little unreliable in the 2 months leading to this downturn. There were many 'market under pressure' calls amd one false 'market under correction' in Mid Aug - which was corrected a day later'. Probably does not work in a non-trending market, wait at least a few days for confirmation (weak volume rebound) before rushing to sell.